Predicting ceiling, floor for BYU in 2024 season

BYU finished its first season in the Big 12 with a 2-7 record in conference action and missing out on a bowl apperance after winning five total games in 2023.

A drop in production thanks to a rise in competition was expected, but after the Cougars entered their new conference coming off five-straight postseason berths — many expected a bit more from BYU last season. Still, with one year of experience in the Power Five under their belt, perhaps the Cougars can turn that into six or more wins this fall.

While FanDuel Sportsbook lists BYU’s over/under at 4.5 wins, On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire broke down where they see the Cougars ceiling and floor during the upcoming 2024 college football season.

Ceiling: 7-5

The Cougars will face 10 major conference opponents during the 2024 season. They play SMU who joined the ACC over the offseason, including a tough Big 12 schedule featuring matchups vs. Kansas State, vs. Arizona, vs. Oklahoma State, at UCF, at Utah and vs. Kansas

“I mean, the at UCF, at Utah is tough,” Bellaire said. “Now, that is with a bye in between so at least there’s a little bit of separation there because you’re talking about two really tough road games, back to back weeks. Seven sounds like the right number to me, which I think would be a huge improvement given that they were not a bowl team last year and have been a bowl team in a few years.

“So yeah, I think seven is probably a good number. I want to go higher because I love I do buy the fact that the quarterback position could be better and that that would make this team and eight-nine win team but I guess I have to see it first. Kind of need to see it to believe it.”

Questions surrounding quarterback Jake Retzlaff after starting the final four games of the season for the Cougars remains, but Staples believes there’s enough talent on the offensive roster to keep BYU afloat during the upcoming season.

Floor: 4-8

A four win-season hasn’t happened at BYU since 2017, and only twice since the turn of the 21st century. However, as the Cougars still get acclimated to its new Big 12 environment, it’s not farfetched to believe that BYU isn’t there just yet.

“I think the draw is tough,” Staples said. “I think the offense needs to get considerably better. If the defense gets better, It does raise the floor though.”

BYU will kick its 2024 college football season off at home against Southern Illinois on Saturday. Aug. 31.