Predicting ceiling, floor for Cincinnati in 2024 season

The Big 12 will look different this upcoming season with several new programs joining the conference following a two-year stretch of massive nationwide conference realignment. But Cincinnati is a team that will now enter its second season in the Big 12 and will look to take a step forward after making the jump to the Power Five last year.

The Bearcats finished last season with a disappointing 3-9 record with just one win versus conference competition. Making 2024 surely a season where head coach Scott Satterfield can show improvement in his second year at the helm for the program.

On3’s Andy Staples recently spoke about each Big 12 team with Big 12 Radio’s Ari Temkin. Breaking down what the best and worst 2024 season could possibly look like for each of the conference’s teams including the Bearcats.

Ceiling: 8-4

The Bearcats had a massive roster overhaul last season following the exit of former head coach Luke Fickell to Wisconsin. But this season they return key players like defensive lineman Dontay Corleone, leading wide receiver Xzavier Henderson, and their entire offensive and defensive lines at large. With Indiana transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby potentially representing the biggest key to Cincinnati potentially reaching their ceiling.

“The unknown is Sorsby because I said a moment ago I thought it was improvement at quarterback. It’s like well, I guess we’ll have to see. We’ll have to wait and see if it is. I’m with you, I could see them getting to eight wins given their schedule,” Temkin said.

Cincinnati’s schedule also could have been far worse. Avoiding teams like Utah and Oklahoma State with a slate that could leave plenty of room for improvement for the Bearcats in 2024.

“I think the Iowa State, Kansas State games back-to-back are really tough and then they lost to Miami of Ohio last year at home. So let’s hope that goes better for them, but they did beat Pitt last year and Towson should be a win for them obviously at the FCS level,” Temkin explained. “I think eight wins is a pretty good ceiling for them and I think they’re gonna have a higher floor than maybe a Baylor or some of the other ones we’re gonna talk about.”

Floor: 3-9

While an eight-win season would be excellent for the Bearcats, the reality is that given the new additions to the Big 12 and the program still rebuilding, Cincinnati could repeat and have an identical season to last year.

“I am fascinated to see what happens here because I like Satterfield as a coach, but I do wonder if their depth is what it needs to be to be competitive in the league,” Staples said. “Because you talk to the coaches who moved into the league, and I’ve talked to Gus Malzahn about this, he said it hits you harder than you think and in unexpected ways. I just don’t know if they’re there yet at Cincinnati.”

The Bearcats had an outstanding run prior to their move to the Big 12, highlighted by a College Football Playoff appearance and 20 players drafted to the NFL in a two-year stretch. A standard that is challenging to meet and replicate that could take more than just two seasons of time.

“I don’t know that we had realistic expectations for Cincinnati year one given the context of this is year two now for Satterfield,” Temkin said. “He’s still trying to replenish the roster, to your point, that doesn’t have much depth because they’ve been depleted by the NFL Draft. It’s just not something you’re used to seeing Cincinnati do so it’s harder to replenish that talent.”