Breaking down the Clemson 2023 season using the over/under

Clemson has won at least 10 games every season since 2011, a stretch of 12 years that also includes a pair of national championships. So with Vegas setting the Tigers’ over/under for the 2023 season at 9.5 victories, it might seem on the surface like an obvious choice.

However, as On3‘s Andy Staples and J.D. PicKell discussed their predictions for Clemson on Tuesday, they came to the conclusion that it could be a lot closer than it looks at first glance. Both ultimately still predicted the Tigers to reach the over, but pointed to a tough schedule as a reason why they could potentially fall short.

“I like the over on Clemson,” PicKell said. “I think they’re kind of maybe daring you to take that a little bit if you’re the public, saying ‘hey look, they got a new quarterback, new OC.’ I think they’re gonna have one of the best defenses in the country and I am of the opinion that this offense under Garrett Riley is going to be substantially more explosive with how they’re gonna scheme guys open. I think they’ve got some receivers, Adam Randall being one of them who was hurt previously who’s gonna be on the field this year. I think they’ll be much more dynamic.”

In addition to a new offensive coordinator, Clemson will also hand over the reigns of its offense to former five-star quarterback Cade Klubnik in 2023. Klubnik flashed his potential both in last year’s ACC Championship and the Orange Bowl and will hope to improve a passing attack that ranked 66th in the FBS with 232.4 yards per game in 2022.

Clemson will face a major test in Week 4 when Florida State comes to town, with many predicting the Seminoles to be an ACC title contender coming off of a 10-win season. However, Staples also sees other potential challenged down the road in a three-week stretch from late October to early November that includes away games against NC State and Miami as well as a home matchup against Notre Dame.

“When I saw this originally I was like, ‘this is definitely an over. No question,'” Staples said. “The more I look at this schedule, the more I question, ‘are they trying to sucker you into this thing?’ They play Wake, which is always a tough game and Dabo will tell you Wake is one of the best-coached teams they play. They get them at home Oct. 7. Then it’s at Miami, at NC State, Notre Dame comes to Clemson. All three weeks in a row. That is a tough stretch right there. So if you’ve already dropped the game to Florida State at that point, that’s where things get a little interesting.”

Still, PicKell is sticking with his prediction for Clemson to hit the over in 2023. Dabo Swinney has simply been too consistent of a coach over the years, and it’s hard to bet against a team that has reached double-digit victories for more than a decade.

“I think Clemson kind of stays Clemson this coming season,” he said. “They could drop that game to Florida State. The Notre Dame game is interesting. I don’t see them losing to South Carolina again this year. I like the over 9.5 here. I don’t think Dabo and them are going quietly into the night.”

Clemson kicks off the 2023 season on Sept. 4 against Duke.