ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Clemson in 2023

The folks over at ESPN took all 12 of Clemson’s regular season games and assigned a win probability percentage to them, coming up with a final record according to the numbers.

So below, you can find a blurb on all 12 of Clemson’s upcoming opponents, accompanied by a the ESPN FPI win probability and a small breakdown off that chance. Be warned, some of these numbers look pretty wacky given the circumstances; however, nearly all of them fall in favor of the Tigers.

Go ahead and take a look:

Sept. 4: Duke (away) — 82.1% chance of win

The Blue Devils possess one of the country’s top returning quarterbacks in Riley Leonard, yet are still massive underdogs in the Labor Day opener at home against the ACC’s top dog. While the matchup at QB may go Duke’s way, every other positional matchup probably does not.

Clemson is loaded at offensive line and at all 11 spots on defense. If Duke does win, they’ll need Leonard to go off and show he needs to be taken seriously as a potential first round draft choice next April.

Sept. 9: Charleston Southern (home) — 99% chance of win

Well, a 1% chance to win for Charleston Southern could actually be a bit generous, given the Buccaneers’ track record against FBS team. They are winless as a program all time with an 0-25 record. However, they did used to be bitter rivals with Coastal Carolina and held a back-and-forth with them until the mid-2010s when they left for FBS ranks.

A team as strong as Clemson ought to have no issue in a contest against a program that’s literally never won an FBS football game. Tigers by 90.

Sept. 16: FAU (home) — 95.2% chance of win

This isn’t Lane Kiffin’s FAU. Since Taking the Owls to an 11-win season in 2019 and then bolting for the Ole Miss job, Florida Atlantic hasn’t won six games in any of the ensuing three seasons.

Former Texas coach Tom Herman is in charge now and he has an old friend with him in former Texas and Nebraska QB Casey Thompson, who is the presumed FAU starter as he enters his fifth year of school. That pairing plus 2022’s leading rusher (Larry McCammon) and receiver (LaJohntay Wester) makes this group somewhat scary.

Sept. 23: Florida State (home) — 68.7% chance of win

September’s most dangerous matchup awaits here in Week 4, where a very likely 3-0 Clemson squad locks horns with FSU in a battle between the ACC’s two premier powers this season.

Florida State hasn’t won the game vs. the Tigers in nine years and are fielding their best team — by preseason expectations — since at least 2016. If Mike Norvell wants to make a big splash and finally get his program on the national spotlight, an upset win on the road vs. Clemson would do wonders. These ‘Noles will be hungry.

Sept. 30: Syracuse (away) — 71.5% chance of win

Even at home, Florida State would seem the much stiffer competition than the Tigers would face in a trip to the dome. Alas, ESPN’s metrics rate Clemson’s chances of beating the Orange at less than three percentage points higher than them beating Florida State.

So, this could be a bit of a trap game. If you believe in that sort of thing, then this is the prime opportunity. Clemson could be coming off a huge early-season win over Florida State and may lose focus against a solid ‘Cuse squad on the road.

Oct. 7: Wake Forest (home) — 84.4% chance of win

The big news for Wake Forest this offseason was losing longtime QB Sam Hartman to Notre Dame and having to replace him. Mitch Griffis gets the nod and has four receivers that recorded more than 500 yards apiece all returning, but his numbers are unlikely to match Hartman’s as just a sophomore.

Especially at home, Clemson ought to take care of business in this contest. However, the Demon Deacons have a knack for putting together some elite passing offenses, so that Tiger secondary will get tested.

Oct. 21: Miami (away) — 72% chance of win

The Hurricanes weren’t great last year and don’t have the feel of a rising contender quite yet. But as always, Miami is loaded with talent, and this year have a returning veteran quarterback who’s drawn the attention of NFL scouts in Tyler Van Dyke.

This will likely be a stronger unit than last year. Plus, Hard Rock Stadium will be louder for the Clemson game than any other all year long, which is always a factor. Not an easy game by any stretch against the Hurricanes, but Clemson should win as they still hold a big talent advantage.

Oct. 28: NC State (away) — 70.2% chance of win

Out goes Devin Leary and in comes Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong at quarterback for Dave Doeren and the Wolfpack. The versatile lefty ought to fit nicely around a majority of returning starters on offense and give NC State a reliable option after they went through four quarterbacks during last season.

This program is as consistent as they come in the ACC aside from the Tigers themselves, having put up 8+ wins each of the last three seasons: 8-5 in ’22, 9-3 in ’21, and 8-4 in ’20. This could be Clemson’s toughest road test.

Nov. 4: Notre Dame (home) — 61.4% chance of win

We’ve arrived at the toughest game on the schedule per the ESPN FPI, which is the home matchup with Notre Dame to kick off the November slate. It’ll be a contest between two of the best defenses in the country and also some new quarterbacks.

Except the Irish have the superior talent back there as of now with former coach Demon-Deacon Sam Hartman. His weapons are a bit depleted after last season, but regardless, ND ought to cause issues for the Clemson offense, and the Tigers better not let Hartman get comfortable.

Nov. 11: Georgia Tech (home) — 92.6% chance of win

It’s tough to imagine a world where Georgia Tech waltzes into Memorial Stadium and comes out with a victory in 2023. This program hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2018 and they haven’t won in Clemson since 10 years before that.

But let’s give credit where it’s due: Tech is improving. On the heels of three straight three-win seasons, Brent Key broke through and led the club to a 5-7 record a year ago. Now, the Jackets have bowl eligibility on their minds and Texas A&M import and starting QB Haynes King could help them get there. You never know, this could be a sneaky squad come November.

Nov. 18: North Carolina (home) — 78% chance of win

Clemson is certainly getting a look at some great QBs this year with Sam Hartman, Jordan Travis, Brennan Armstrong, Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler, who’s coming up. As things stand heading into the year, Maye has the highest pedigree of the bunch and is an odds-on favorite to go top-five in the draft next year.

There’s stuff to like about the defense and receiving corps, but this game will come down to Clemson pressuring Maye, which will happen early and often, based on Mack Brown’s own admission that the OL is still giving up too many sacks. If they don’t get Maye on the ground, though, this contest could get dangerous in a hurry.

Nov. 25: South Carolina (away) — 77.2% chance of win

After losing in embarrassment fashion on the paw a year ago, ESPN gives Clemson a 77% chance to extact revenge on the road. It won’t be easy, as the Gamecocks return starting QB Spencer Rattler after a scorching final month of his year in 2022. Meanwhile, his top target is also back in Juice Wells.

Regardless of the returners, Clemson will have the talent advantage and you can bet Dabo Swinney will have his guys much more motivated to come out and show up their intra-state rival on their home field.

Final Record: 9.5-2.5

Yes, even though Clemson was projected to win every single game on the schedule — and with at least 60% win probability on all of them — ESPN’s metrics still call for two or three losses in the regular season this year. That’s just stats for you. Even though you can assume Clemson will win a game when at 70% probability, if they play three or four of those, the odds say they’ll probably lose one or two.