ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Florida in 2023

Florida enters Year 2 under Billy Napier without much fanfare from the media, not expected to do a whole lot in the bigger picture. But ESPN’s game-by-game predictions using their proprietary Football Power Index (FPI) tell a different story.

Las Vegas has the over/under win total for Florida set at just 5.5 games, meaning six wins for the Gators would cash the over.

The FPI has Florida closer to eight wins, potentially, based on the game-by-game matchups on the 2023 schedule. And it’s certainly not an easy schedule for the Gators. Let’s dive in and take a closer look at the game-by-game predictions for the Gators.

Aug. 31 – Florida at Utah – 32.1% chance to win

Florida and Utah played a thriller in the Swamp last season, a game that effectively ended when Utah quarterback Cam Rising was picked off in the end zone by linebacker Amari Burney. But it was a back-and-forth affair throughout.

This year’s contest is at Utah, but the Utes might be without Rising, who suffered a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl and has not yet returned to the practice field. His availability will be key to watch and might swing the odds a bit more in Florida’s direction if he can’t go.

Sept. 9 – Florida vs. McNeese – 98.7% chance to win

As far as mismatches go, this one ranks pretty high up there. Florida will get a chance to tune up whatever went wrong during the Utah game, ahead of a pivotal contest against Tennessee. Given the importance of that one, what should be a glorified scrimmage ahead of it is a huge bonus for Florida.

Expect the Gators to play plenty of bodies in this one, in part to keep fresh for the Tennessee game and in part to start to sort out the depth chart for the rest of the season. But there should be no real worry about this game.

Sept. 16 – Florida vs. Tennessee – 51.1%

Florida played one of the more competitive games against Tennessee last season, falling 38-33 in a bit of a shootout. Both teams have to replace excellent starting quarterbacks this year, with Anthony Richardson, the No. 4 overall pick in the NFL Draft, and Hendon Hooker both gone.

Tennessee is likely to be a decent betting favorite entering the game, even in the Swamp. But the home-field advantage will definitely give Florida a chance against its SEC East rival.

Sept. 23 – Florida vs. Charlotte – 94.7% chance to win

Another tune-up game in the first half of the schedule, this one should be a little bit stiffer a test than the McNeese game. And it’s sandwiched in between two vital SEC East games that will likely decide the direction of Florida’s 2023 season.

If Florida can manage to split the Tennessee and Kentucky games it’ll have a chance to meet or exceed the outside expectations for the first half of the season. Wins in both would have some real momentum building in Gainesville.

Sept. 30 – Florida at Kentucky – 48.7%

Kentucky has had Florida’s number of late and will have the luxury of facing the Gators at home this time around. The Wildcats have won two straight in the series and three of the last five after finally snapping the Gators’ 31-game winning streak.

Both teams will have had a chance to work their new transfer quarterbacks in, with Florida featuring Wisconsin‘s Graham Mertz and Kentucky swapping in NC State‘s Devin Leary. The matchup in the trenches may be the key to this one, though.

Oct. 7 – Florida vs. Vanderbilt – 87.6% chance to win

Vanderbilt managed to catch Florida napping in 2022 with an early start in Nashville, working their way to a 31-24 win. It was the second win for the Commodores in the last 10 meetings, so it’s certainly not out of the question for the ‘Dores to do it again.

Still, Florida should have a ground game that borders on elite in 2023 and if the trenches are up to snuff, this is a game where the Gators should be able to lean on their opponent. As the FPI indicates, Florida should be a pretty solid favorite in this one.

Oct. 14 – Florida at South Carolina – 57.3%

South Carolina ended the 2022 season on a real hot streak, notching back-to-back top-10 wins over Tennessee and Clemson. The Gamecocks will be looking to build on that momentum with quarterback Spencer Rattler, who had a tough time in Gainesville last fall, returning for another year.

Florida has had issues winning in Columbia in the last two decades, splitting the 10 games there, including 2021’s 40-17 loss that was the final nail in the coffin for Dan Mullen. So despite the FPI projections here, know it will likely be a fight.

Oct. 28 – Florida vs. Georgia (Jacksonville) – 16.7% chance to win

It’s no surprise that the FPI doesn’t give Florida much of a chance against the defending two-time national champions, who have stacked as much talent as anyone in the country. Still, it’s always an interesting game in Jacksonville.

This one could well come down to how well the two starting quarterbacks have settled in. Carson Beck is taking over for Georgia and doesn’t have nearly the experience that Mertz has. But he does have the more talented supporting cast.

Nov. 4 – Florida vs. Arkansas – 63.7% chance to win

This will be an interesting cross-divisional matchup, with Florida and Arkansas having met several times over the years and usually producing an entertaining game. Arkansas will come in with an outstanding run game, led by quarterback KJ Jefferson and running back Raheim Sanders.

The spot on the schedule also makes this one tricky for Florida; the Gators are usually physically and emotionally depleted after the Georgia game. That makes for an interesting backdrop to a late-season SEC West game.

Nov. 11 – Florida at LSU – 21.7% chance to win

This one is in a weird spot on the schedule, with Florida and LSU typically meeting in early to mid-October. And this one is always a fascinating matchup, with the last four of them having been shootouts. In fact, the loser in the last three has had at least 34 points.

LSU has the better roster on paper and returns a more dynamic quarterback in Jayden Daniels. With this game at Death Valley, the FPI really doesn’t like Florida’s chances.

Nov. 18 – Florida at Missouri – 56.8% chance to win

This is another late-season road matchup that could be much trickier than it would be if it came earlier in the season. Florida hasn’t always fared very well at Missouri, with the Tigers taking three or the five meetings in CoMo since joining the SEC.

If Florida’s going to win this one it’ll be because it has stayed relatively healthy and is locked in and focused heading on the road. On paper, the Gators definitely have more talent. Will they be able to overcome the other factors?

Nov. 25 – Florida vs. Florida State – 50.1% chance to win

This is one of the more surprising predictions from the FPI, if only because it doesn’t necessarily jive with other preseason expectations. Florida State is a top-10 team going into the year, while Florida is unranked. But the game is at the Swamp.

Florida State will bring plenty of weapons, from quarterback Jordan Travis to new transfer receiver Keon Coleman, to a strong backfield. Can Florida use the home crowd to get a little bit of an extra lift in the bitter rivalry game?