ESPN predicts every game outcome on Florida's 2024 schedule

Florida is going to play an unbelievable schedule this fall with it being the most difficult slate in the country. With that, ESPN has now made its analytical prediction for each of their dozen games and how they expect them to go for the Gators.

ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) has Florida’s projected finish to be right at .500 with a record of 5.9-6.1. It’s percentage chance of them reaching six wins and becoming bowl eligible is at 58.2%.

Here’s how the matchup predictor views each of the Gators’ games in 2024:

August 31st: Miami vs. Florida – 57.3% chance of win

Florida opens with a massive matchup for both teams involved as they’ll host the first of three in-state opponents in No. 19 Miami. The Hurricanes come into the season as a favorite out of the ACC and will begin that year in The Swamp.

With how this year sets up, the Gators need to pick up early wins, especially with four of their first five at home. That, along with bragging rights, make it all the more important for them to find a way to start at 1-0 with the percentage leaning toward them against a quality team in the opener.

September 7th: Samford vs. Florida – 98.4% chance of win

This will be the easiest game of the season for Florida. Samford will be their only non-power opponent of the year and their odds of winning it per the predictor is the only one above 90% – let alone 70%.

However, it’s still interesting considering the Gators and Bulldogs played a thrilling game in their only previous meeting back in 2021 – just a week before the firing of Dan Mullen. Florida hung 70 on them in an 18-point win but they still allowed 52 points in a game that Samford held several leads in during the first half and was within distance of in the fourth quarter.

September 14th: Texas A&M vs. Florida – 50.1% chance of win

Florida’s third game of the season, which will open conference play for them, represents the biggest toss-up of them all with it being 0.1% from being a full-on coin flip.

Texas A&M is a bit of a question mark coming in with the Aggies having a new head coach in Mike Elko. Still, with it also being in Gainesville for the third straight weekend to start the year, it’s one that the Gators have to get in their favor, especially with what’s still to come.

September 21st: Florida at Mississippi State – 63.2% chance of win

Florida will close the initial portion of their year ahead of their first bye with their second conference game and first one of the slate on the road in Starkville. It’s also the second consecutive weekend that they’ll play a first-year head coach with Jeff Lebby taking over at Mississippi State.

Again, the early part of the schedule is much simpler for the Gators. They’ll need this one over the Bulldogs to feel good about where their season stands through the first month before October.

October 5th: UCF vs. Florida – 67.5% chance of win

UCF will be the second of three in-state opponents of the year for the Gators. That makes this one about boasting as well when it comes to them among its four power schools.

The Knights are very decent opponent out of the Big 12 as they’re led by Gus Malzahn and have plenty of talent on their roster, including QB KJ Jefferson. That makes it a crucial one to secure to start what will be a vital month with three games for Florida.

October 12th: Florida at Tennessee – 30% chance of win

If this were in The Swamp, Florida might feel pretty good about their trio of games in October as they’ve won 11 straight over the Vols at home. It’s on Rocky Top, though, which puts it well in favor of Tennessee this season although they’ve lost 17 of the last 19 in the series since 2005.

The Gators will close the first half of their season with this rivalry game in Knoxville. It’s where the slate will now take a turn too with there being only one favored game for them the rest of the way per ESPN.

October 19th: Kentucky vs. Florida – 66.2% chance of win

Kentucky will be the last game of the season that this predictor has the Gators favored in at 66.2%. It could be a legitimate swing game for them if they were to secure it with what November holds.

With that said, the Wildcats have turned history around in this series over the last half decade. They’ve won three straight now over Florida, including five of the last six and two of the last three in Gainesville, losing 31 straight to them dating back to 1987.

November 2nd: Florida vs. Georgia – 14.7% chance of win

After their second bye with the start of November, Florida could have a rough final month unless they pull some huge upsets. They aren’t favored in any of their final five, although their last two conference games are a bit more attainable, with each team opening the season in the Top-15 and four being in the Top-10.

That stretch starts with Georgia in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party from Jacksonville. They’ve lost six of the last seven to the Bulldogs and aren’t expected to end that skid according to ESPN.

November 9th: Florida at Texas – 13.8% chance of win

Florida hasn’t met Texas for a game since they played three games back in the early 1900s. They didn’t win any of the three way back then and aren’t favored to do so as league opponents for the first time now.

The figure of 13.8% is the lowest of the season for Florida in 2024 per ESPN. That makes it about as difficult of a two-game stretch for anyone in the country this year by the time that they’re done on The 40 Acres.

November 16th: LSU vs. Florida – 46.6% chance of win

Florida will return to their home field for the final pair of conference games of the season. They’re still not favored to win either, though, with the last stand starting with a game with LSU.

The Tigers have won five straight over the Gators and 11 of their last 14 going back to 2010. That’s another historic stretch that they’ll have to snap in order to close the year better than the odds expect.

November 23rd: Ole Miss vs. Florida – 47.5% chance of win

The SEC slate for Florida will end against another contender in Ole Miss. However, their history against one another, specifically recently, is much more manageable than the rest from November.

The Gators might be even with the Rebels all-time but have won their last two meetings with them and three of the last four. That leaves it as a potential massive opportunity to get a win in the month with it being the highest likelihood of the five from ESPN.

November 30th: Florida at Florida State – 33.9% chance of win

Florida’s season will come to a close with a final rivalry game against an in-state for with Florida State in Tallahassee. It will end an incredibly difficult final stretch as well as their scheduled series against all of the other top schools in the state.

The Seminoles, who are also conference and title contenders in their own right, have won two straight and nine of the last 13 over the Gators since 2010, although the all-time history still is in favor of Florida. Once again, UF will have to beat the odds with them facing another huge challenge to finish the year against FSU.

Final record per probabilities at ESPN: 6-6

There’s no avoiding the importance of this year for Florida and Billy Napier, regardless of how tough the season and individual game look to be for them going in. All they can do is kick them off, though, and try to get as many as they can with them expected to finish dead even by ESPN.