Florida Baseball Preview: Led by offense, Gators look to make noise

The Florida Gators have become a mainstay atop the SEC in Kevin O’Sullivan’s time in Gainesville, and the 2022 season should be no different. Florida comes in as the preseason No. 9 team in the D1Baseball Top 25, and despite a rocky 2021 season, the Gators have the experience to be a top team in the SEC East this season.

Last year, Florida finished the season with a 38-22 overall record, coupled with a 17-13 record in conference play. Florida managed to sneak away with a couple big wins in the SEC Tournament — most notably, an upset over the eventual national champion in Mississippi State — but the Gators were eliminated at home in the Gainesville Regional.

Heading into 2022, Florida once again has high hopes. As the Gators prepare to start their season on Friday against Liberty, On3 spoke with Nick de la Torre to preview Florida’s roster and talk expectations. This interview has been lightly edited for clarity.

Nick de la Torre covers Florida for On3’s GatorsOnline. He can be reached on Twitter at @delatorre.

What do you think Florida’s weekend rotation will look like this season, and who fits as a midweek starter?

It’s going to be Hunter Barco on Friday and Florida is really going to be depending on Barco to be that Friday night guy. Since I’ve been here, they’ve had some real bulldogs on Friday night, and that’s the guy you need to set the tone. Barco is without a doubt, unequivocally the Friday night guy, and they need him to live up to the history of Friday night guys they’ve had.

After him, on Saturday, it’ll be Brandon Sproat. Sproat is going to have to prove himself in this role. He’ll get a couple starts, and he’s a guy that throws 100 miles per hour, but he’s been really inconsistent throwing his off-speed. If you’re playing in the SEC, and you can’t throw anything else, it doesn’t matter if you can throw 100. They’ll sit back and they’ll time you up eventually. He probably gets hit harder than anybody I’ve ever seen that has the kind of stuff that he has.

Sunday, I think there’s a couple guys that they can go with. There’s a freshman, Pierce Coppola, who’s a 6-foot-8 lefty from New Jersey, who throws in the mid-90’s. Then, there’s a sophomore in Timmy Manning, another lefty. I think those two are guys that will get a look on Sunday. Whichever one doesn’t start on Sunday will be one of those midweek guys. Florida also has one graduate senior in Garrett Milchin that could contribute in one way or another. Milchin was actually a freshman on the 2017 team, and he tore his UCL and had to have Tommy John. Unfortunately for him, he’s had to have Tommy John twice. So, he’s in his sixth year. He’s not the pitcher he was as a freshman, but he’s kind of earned the opportunity to pitch on some of those Tuesday and Wednesday games.

Florida also has a lot of young freshman pitchers that they’ll have to work in: Philip Abner is a guy who will get a couple weekday starts, and he might slide in at the closer role. Two more names to watch out for are Nick Pogue and Tyler Nesbitt. Nesbitt as a true freshman in 2020 threw 10 scoreless, and Pogue should have been drafted last year. They both tore their UCLs last season and had Tommy John surgery, one happened the week before the 2021 season and one happened the first week of the 2021 season. The hope is to get them back to 100% by SEC play when that starts in March. When Nick Pogue gets to 100%, he is a weekend starter. Sully has made that very clear.

What will Florida’s lineup look like to start the season, and who will the Gators rely on most for production behind the plate?

We projected Florida’s entire starting lineup over at GatorsOnline, and we talked to Sully, and he just confirmed that my projection was right.

For GatorsOnline’s full starting lineup projection, click here.

It really starts with Jud Fabian. He was the 40th pick in the MLB Draft, taken by the Red Sox. The money didn’t work out, and he’s back on campus at Florida. It really starts with Jud. Sterlin Thompson is a guy who has only been on one preseason list, but I think he will be on several postseason lists. Kevin O’Sullivan has compared him multiple times to Cody Bellinger. When he said it the first time, I had never seen Sterlin play, and I thought that was a wild comp for a freshman who weighed 170 pounds at the time. But Sterlin just hits. He was an infielder in high school, but they didn’t have a spot in the infield. He just hits so well that they stuck him in the outfield and he’s figuring it out there. Hit .301 as a freshman, and he’s a guy that I haven’t seen make too many outs in the fall and in the spring.

Third base is the only freshman really starting for them, and that’s Deric Fabian, Jud’s brother. He’s struggled with swinging and missing, but there’s a ton of power in his swing. He’s really been a reliable and steady defensive player at the hot corner. Another guy that should’ve been drafted but wasn’t was Kris Armstrong. He’s a DH and can play first base at 6-foot-4, 230 pounds. He looks more like a college linebacker that can switch hit. Jud hit 20 home runs last year, and Armstrong is a guy that can hit 10-15. There’s a lot of power in this Gator lineup. Unlike the pitching, Florida has a lot of experience when it comes to defense and offense. They have three catchers that can contribute in Mac Guscette, who’s really good but broke his hand last year; BT Riopelle, a transfer from Coastal Carolina in his fourth year of college who’s pretty good; then there’s another talent in freshman Rene Lastres. He might be the best defensive catcher and Kevin O’Sullivan compared him to Mike Zunino.

There might be a platoon at catcher, but there might be a platoon in left field as well. They were expecting to lose Jacob Young, which they did, and Jud Fabian, who stayed — this was a pretty heavy freshman outfielder class. There are guys like Corey Robinson, Ty Evans and Matt Prevesk that could very well platoon in right field with Wyatt Langford. They’re that talented. It’s Langford’s first time in the outfield. He was a catcher, but obviously, with three catchers, they had to find somewhere to put his bat, so they put him in left field.

Kevin O’Sullivan is kind of hoping — because of all the freshmen pitchers that they have — that the offense will be able to score and the defense will be solid behind the freshmen. They want to pitch the freshmen in clean games, not stick them in close, high-pressure games and try to make them learn SEC baseball there.

Bottom line is this: the strength of this Florida team, especially early on, will be the offense.

Last year, did Florida have any weaknesses that stood out to you? How did Kevin O’Sullivan address that going into this year?

The weakness, which was so strange to me, was the defense. In my years covering Florida, I’ve seen them win awards for being the best fielding team in the country. They’ve routinely been among the best in terms of fielding percentage. Then, last year, Florida’s starting shortstop had 13 errors. Their second baseman had 11. So, you’re talking about 24 errors from the middle infield alone, which is unheard of. I think defense needs to be much better.

On top of that, I think last year was really tough. Tommy Mace, who Florida thought would be the Friday night bulldog, he ended up getting pushed to the bullpen for a week as a wakeup call because he wasn’t getting it done on Friday nights. Jack Leftwich was a guy that got drafted and was supposed to be the Saturday guy, but he got sent to the bullpen and stayed there the rest of the year. So, Florida didn’t have the hallmarks of Kevin O’Sullivan’s program since he got to Florida in 2007: pitching and defense.

Who would be your early pick for Florida’s team MVP?

I’m going to go with Sterlin Thompson. I went out and watched a full week of practice, and they play intrasquads every day. I think I saw him record three outs in 12 or 13 at bats. He’s got a really advanced approach for a guy that’s only 19 years old at the plate. We’ll see how the defense looks. There are times where he made some pretty routine plays look interesting out in the outfield, because that’s a new position for him.

Then, if I’m Kevin O’Sullivan, Thompson sounds nice, but I’m really hoping the MVP is Hunter Barco. As I said before, Florida really wants to get back to having that shutdown guy on Friday nights, and that really set them back last year.

Who would be your early pick Florida’s newcomer of the year?

I’ll go with the person I mentioned before that might start on the weekends right away, and that’s Pierce Coppola. If he can put it all together, there’s no limit to his potential. If he develops the way they expect him to, you’re talking about a top 10 overall pick in the draft in two years. The issue with him is that he’s had back issues, he’s had to get some pain-numbing shots, so it’s almost — I feel like Florida feels like it’s a matter of when they’ll have to shut him down because of the back and not if. So, if he can stay healthy, he’s someone who I think is the sure fire candidate there.

What’s the ceiling for Florida heading into the 2022 season, and where do you see them finishing in SEC play?

It’s tough. If you look at Florida’s schedule, they open up with Liberty, who made some noise in Tennessee’s regional last year. They swept UCF, and it’s a really good Liberty team that returns a bunch of guys. They have to go down and play at Miami, they have to play three games with FSU, and that’s all before you play the LSU, Texas A&M and Vandy type teams. It’s a tough schedule, and there’s a lot of question marks right now with Florida that I have, starting with the weekend rotation. I’ve mentioned Barco a bunch of times, and that’s really the only guy I feel really comfortable with — or that Kevin O’Sullivan feels comfortable with — on the weekends. A lot of it is going to be how do those young guys develop? Does Florida hit? Will their hitting be enough to keep them competitive while these freshmen figure stuff out? I think you have to circle that Vanderbilt series every year, then they’ll certainly be circling Arkansas, the defending national champion Mississippi State team — it’s not an easy schedule for them. But until I’m proven otherwise, I think it’s kind of like Vanderbilt, where you have to say Florida is either one or two, the class of the SEC East. So much of the division will come down to that Florida-Vanderbilt series in Nashville, and that magic number — who can get to 20 wins in the SEC?

I think that’s Florida’s goal every year: to win the east, and to win the SEC, and I think it would be too soon to say they’re not good enough to do that this year. I think they have the talent.