'Don't know' where Billy Napier goes if Florida loses to Tennessee

Tennessee is coming to Gainesville on Saturday, looking for its first win at the Swamp since 2003. Florida finds itself as a touchdown underdog, potentially losing a streak fans love to have over the Volunteers. Billy Napier will be desperate to get a win, especially with how last year’s games went against rivals.

“Billy Napier was the first first-year head coach since Charley Pell to lose to every rival,” Nick de la Torre of On3’s Gators Online said during Tuesday’s episode of Andy Staples On3. “You can’t do that again.”

Florida State, Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee are considered the four main rivals of Florida. Three of them finished as one-possession games in 2022 while Georgia won by 22 points in Jacksonville. LSU was the only one to occur at home but either way, Napier cannot be losing all of those games.

Tennessee will be the first crack Napier gets this season against a rival and it might be his best chance to win. Georgia is still the best team in the country while Florida State is currently a contender for the College Football Playoff.

LSU did lose to the Seminoles but Florida will travel to Baton Rouge — a place they have won just once since Urban Meyer left.

If Napier is going to get a rivalry win, Tennessee is likely his best chance — at least on paper.

“When I look at the rivalry games — Florida State looks great,” de la Torre said. “Georgia is Georgia. And you have to go to LSU. This one, I’m probably circling (Tennessee) as the most winnable rivalry game. You’re at home, it’s going to be a great crowd.”

Tennessee win provides sense of direction for Florida program, Billy Napier

A successful result against Tennessee would provide more than a rivalry win. There are already big-picture questions being asked about Napier. Last season was a second consecutive losing one — a first for the program since 1979. With how the schedule pans out moving forward, Florida could be heading for a third one.

Napier is potentially in a “must-win” scenario to at least show there is a sense of direction with Florida.

“I think just as a proof of concept and a continued ‘Hey, the program is going in the right direction.’ That’s why I think this is a must-win game for Billy Napier and Florida,” de la Torre said. “The back end of the schedule is tough. It’s going to get brutal starting in October. Right now, you can go 2-1, go to 3-1 heading into Lexington.”

Florida State, Georgia, and LSU all fall in the final five weeks of the regular season. Arkansas will be a tough opponent out of the SEC West, while Columbia, MO has been a place Florida has struggled in the past. Looking from afar, there is a chance Arkansas is the only game Florida is favored in.

If the Tennessee game is a loss, Napier is going to “scramble” just to earn bowl eligibility.

“To me, I don’t know where Florida goes from here (if they lose),” de la Torre said. “Obviously, you get Charlotte next week. You probably climb back to .500. I don’t think I’ll be picking Florida to win in Lexington. I think Mark Stoops has outcoached Dan Mullen and Billy Napier in back-to-back years. That’s going to be a team, especially if Devin Leary gets going, that Florida will struggle with to match physicality in the box, at the line of scrimmage.

“Then you start looking. South Carolina. Is that a winnable game? If Florida doesn’t beat Tennessee… now you’re probably in a scramble mode just to get to six wins and get to a bowl game.”

de la Torre points out fans are going to be asking for Napier to hire an offensive coordinator or special teams coach if a loss comes on Saturday. Neither of those will be coming this season, though. Napier needs short-term success to keep the faith instilled.