JD PicKell picks Florida to reach bowl, says over/under at 4.5 wins 'feels ridiculous'

It’s the time of year where over/under win totals are debated and conference champions are chosen. Florida might not be the latter, but the former has certainly raised some eyebrows when it comes to the Gators.

Coming off a 6-7 season — the third straight losing season for the program — Florida is looking to bounce back.

And On3’s JD PicKell is picking the Gators as a team that is being overlooked and will surprise to the upside in 2024. He made that pick on the Paul Finebaum Show on Thursday.

“There’s a couple teams. I think the first one, and I’ve talked about this a few times on this show with you, Paul, Florida at over/under 4.5 wins to me is just a little bit crazy,” PicKell said. “I think we’re taking last year and putting a lot of value on that, what that roster was, and then looking at the schedule that is absolutely ridiculous and saying, ‘OK, well they’re not going to be any good.'”

Not so fast, PicKell said.

While it’s true that Florida’s schedule is among the most brutal in recent college football history, PicKell sees one big reason why Florida might exceed expectations.

“In reality I saw Graham Mertz, who everyone told me was going to be horrible when he got to Gainesville from Wisconsin, go out and throw for 20 touchdowns and three picks and almost 3,000 yards,” PicKell said. “He totally debunked that myth. You’ve got a roster that offensively added more weapons to help I think one of the best playmakers in the SEC if not college football in Tre Wilson.

“They went out and got Chimere Dike from Wisconsin, who is Graham Mertz’s guy, a lot of chemistry together, and then Elijah Badger, one of the best receivers in that second portal window from Arizona State who is great after the catch. And then they’re much older in the secondary.”

Those additions could be the difference in a game or two this fall. At the very least, they should make Florida more competitive.

PicKell summed up his thoughts on the Gators with his overall season prediction.

“So all that’s to say I don’t think Florida is going to compete for an SEC championship, but to have them at 4.5 wins to me feels ridiculous,” he said. “I think, one, they’re going to make a bowl game. And then, two, I think they’re going to catch somebody slipping in November and gonna mess up their chance at either getting to Atlanta or the College Football Playoff.”