JD PicKell predicts Florida will finish 7-5 in 2024 despite difficult schedule

On his YouTube show, On3’s JD PicKell offered his comprehensive and positive-leaning thoughts on the Florida Gators ahead of a critical 2024 season for Billy Napier and the program.

PicKell dived deep into his reasons for why the offensive personnel is more explosive, why a coaching addition and experience will mean a better defense. Plus, he takes a three-phase view of the Florida schedule before offering his final record prediction, while also commenting on what that final tally could mean for Napier’s future.

Before diving into the nitty gritty, PicKell gave some overarching takes on the Florida program in 2024, starting with the fact that they are much more talented, in his eyes, and the team could be much improved regardless of record.

“No one is denying that last year was less than desirable, no one is denying that this year the schedule is brutal,” he said. “But look at what they have on this roster. The roster, what they have in-house, I think is a lot better than people would like to give them credit for.”

PicKell had no hesitation before adding: “Spoiler alert: I’m a lot higher on Florida than I think the rest of the college football public is. Every gripe or issue you would have with Florida, I think there is a very reasonable and logical solution.”

He proceeded to break those down…

The offense

To begin his list of questions Florida must answer in 2024, PicKell starts with scoring production.

“You say the offense, you can’t score less than 27 per game and expect to have success against that schedule? Yeah, that’s right, but Graham Mertz is going into his second year in the system.”

For PicKell, that’s huge: “He’s played a lot of football. We’ve seen a lot of individuals their second year in the system having a ton of success,” he added, throwing in the names of Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield as transfers who soared in their second seasons at LSU and Oklahoma.

“I think it’s fair to acknowledge guys who have played a lot of football now having another year in the system.”

Next, PicKell addressed the troubles of actually creating a more high-powered offense. He once more notes that crucial second season for QB1.

“They say it’s not explosive enough? Again, Graham Mertz getting another year in the system and also getting more weapons.” Those weapons:

“Chimere Dike (Wisconsin WR), sneaky big-time get via the portal in the sense that’s a guy Mertz has played a lot of football with. Tre Wilson, one of the best playmakers in college football. Elijhah Badger (Arizona State WR), great after the catch, one of their more high-profile gets from that spring transfer portal.”

With a seasoned Mertz under center plus those adds, PicKell is a believer in the group: “There’s a lot of pieces there to fix those explosivity issues.”

The defense

Moving on to the defensive side of the ball, the facts are pretty simple.

“Defense has to be better? Defense does have to be better,” PicKell stated, asking: “What goes into defense? At a base level, it’s coaching and players.”

But like the offense, he sees more talent this year. “Players, I believe, are better, at the least, more experienced,” he added. “At best, you talk about improvements on the back end, bringing in a guy like Asa Turner who has done a lot of good things in his career.”

Turning to the coaching staff, there was one addition PicKell was a big fan of: “Talk about coaching. They brought in Ron Roberts to be the Football Dad of sorts for Austin Armstrong, a second pair of eyes, his spotter defensively.”

More experience on the sideline and on the field should breed better results, according to JD PicKell.

Schedule breakdown

Before giving his final prediction, PicKell addressed the vaunted 2024 Florida Gators Football schedule, going in chronological order.

“Yes, it’s brutal,” he began. “The first 4-5 games of this season are absolutely massive. Why? Because you are the most fresh. You have your most healthy roster, and it’s only going to get tougher. You want to establish that confidence early on.”

After that friendlier slate early on, the schedule heats up as the weather grows colder.

“October is all about keeping it on the rails,” says PicKell. “If they can go 2-1 against UCF, at Tennessee and Kentucky, phenomenal.” But the 11th month of the year is where the Grim Reaper’s scythe comes out. PicKell says: be prepared.

“Now, November is going to hit like a tidal wave. Psychologically, are you in a spot where you feel good about what you’re doing internally? Is there good cohesion, good harmony? That is massive when you go play Georgia, go to Texas.”

Wins in those games may be a tough task, but PicKell has an alternate goal for the Gators post-Halloween.

“In the month of November, you need marketable moments, moments you can package up and go pitch on the recruiting trail, or to the powers that be, or to the fanbase to say: ‘This thing is going somewhere.'”

Now, it’s time to break down which record really indicates whether this train is still on the right set of tracks.

Final Prediction: 7-5

JD PicKell settled in with the 7-5 pick, but first, he addressed the conundrum a 6-6 finish would pose.

“As we get to this record prediction, 6-6 is an intriguing spot to land. At 6-6, if you’re Billy Napier, the verdict is very much so still out on what he would be as a head coach.”

But PicKell took up for Napier:

“If you go 6-6 with that schedule, I would be asking, ‘Are we sure he’s not the right guy at Florida?’ Because 6-6 vs. that schedule, what is that in the ACC, what is that in the Big 12? Like a 9-10 win season? Not throwing shade, just asking. Is it really worth at 6-6 hitting the reset button on your roster for the next two years?”

However, that question probably gets answered more convincingly in Napier’s favor if Florida pushes for that seventh victory.

“Me personally, I think Florida goes 7-5. I think there’s a lot more to this roster than what meets the eye,” PicKell predicts.

“I think they’ll catch somebody in November, and I think there’s more belief and buy-in internally than most folks will give credit. I think they’re going to be able to get to that seven-win mark and they’ll have enough there to keep Billy Napier around for another season.”

There you have it: On3’s JD PicKell pencils in Florida for seven wins, but he’d keep Napier as long as the Gators get to a bowl.