Paul Finebaum believes 2024 schedule adds pressure to Billy Napier, Florida

Billy Napier had a so-so first season with Florida as the Gators finished 6-7. If they don’t take another step up in 2023, though, Paul Finebaum expects a ton of pressure to fall upon him in The Swamp considering what’s in store for them in 2024.

Finebaum shared that opinion in an appearance on ‘McElroy and Cubelic In The Morning.’ He said that Napier might be able to earn some good graces by overachieving on what people are expecting from Florida this fall. If he doesn’t, that could then make 2024’s campaign, which will be one of the toughest schedules in the nation, a make or break stretch for him down in Gainesville.

“The thing about ’24? Not only does he have one of the toughest SEC schedules but he has Miami, UCF, and Florida State on the schedule,” Finebaum said. “I think, this year, there is caution and patience baked into the cake. The expectations are very low. I think he has a chance, maybe, to exceed expectations this year because the expectations are below .500. But if he doesn’t do that and he heads into next year with that schedule without having developed very much?

“I don’t think anyone is counting Billy Napier out. But next year will be extremely important for him,” added Finebaum. “I know that sounds like an understatement but it’s the truth. And patience only goes so far for the Florida fanbase. I don’t care how long it’s been since they’ve last been relevant.”

Finebaum went on to note what he perceives as an overreaction to Napier’s recent run of recruiting success. It’s been a great step for the Gators as they’ve picked up nine commitments as of late that have led them to jump from No. 13 to No. 2 in On3’s 2024 Industry Team Rankings. Still, based on the pace from other teams, even in the SEC, Finebaum thinks it’s only doing so much good for the program.

“I know he’s done some good recruiting,” Finebaum admitted. “I think the mistake people are making is when they get excited about his recruiting. (But) compared to which school?”

“I mean Florida is recruiting better than it has been. But it’s still trailing Georgia, it’s still trailing other schools in the SEC,” said Finebaum. “It’s like a NASCAR race. You can still be in the top five, six, or seven. But when you’re going around turn four? You better jump ahead of somebody. That’s really, ultimately, what Florida is facing right now.”

Florida already has a very tough schedule to worry about in 2023. ESPN’s FPI as well as both On3’s JD PicKell and Jesse Simonton expect the Gators to only finish at around seven wins.

However, anything less could trigger the events that Finebaum described. It would open the door for 2024, with all of it’s challenges in the non-conference as well as the SEC, to be a potentially deciding year for Napier down in Gainesville.