Paul Finebaum evaluates if Billy Napier will survive the 2024 season at Florida

The stakes are unmistakably high for Florida head coach Billy Napier in the 2024 campaign. During an appearance on “McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning,” Paul Finebaum weighed in on Napier’s chances of finishing the season with the program.

“It depends on the beginning of the season,” Finebaum said. “The biggest game for him is that first game. You can add any cliché you want about first impressions, but if fans show up at The Swamp in 12 days and see a lackluster performance in a loss to Miami, then where do they go?

“For optimism, that’s a game that has to be in the win column. And then two weeks later, Texas A&M comes to town. Now, again, we don’t know how A&M plays against Notre Dame in the opening game, but that’s really to me, where their season lies.”

Despite boasting the home-field advantage in its season-opening matchup against Miami, Florida is a 2.5-point underdog, according to FanDuel. It’s not a promising sign for the Gators, who have not faced off against Miami since 2019.

To make matters worse, Florida isn’t expected to be favored in its Week 3 showdown against Texas A&M, either. The Aggies are ranked No. 20 in the preseason AP Top 25 while the Gators are nowhere to be found.

Nonetheless, Napier isn’t a stranger to upsets. In Week 3 last season, Florida stunned Tennessee with a convincing 29-16 win. With improved talent in the 2024 campaign, Napier must find a way to turn upset wins into the rule instead of the exception.

After all, with one of the most difficult schedules in the country, Florida has little room for error.

“They’re playing a game of calculus. They have no games to lose,” Finebaum said. “If you think they’re going to lose most of those last five games, if they throw away the Miami game, they’re in trouble. And here’s where it really gets interesting. Let’s say they lose to Miami. Then, A&M becomes almost a make-or-break game. And then, I think a week or two later, they go to Mississippi State.

“If you want to play the negative game — that’s when the season could already be over. So back to your question about Napier — if he can’t win, if he can’t jump out to a fast start and maybe get to Tennessee undefeated, then his chances of survival diminish greatly.”

Eight of Florida’s regular-season opponents are ranked in the preseason AP Top 25. Further, the Gators play four top-10 teams in its final five games. With the odds stacked against him, Billy Napier has no choice but to attack the task ahead of him one week at a time.