Predicting games Florida should win in 2024

After failing to achieve bowl eligibility this past season, Florida enters the 2024 season looking to get back on track. The Gators are entering their third season under coach Billy Napier and fans would like to start seeing results after having not had a winning record since 2020.

Nick de la Torre of Gators Online joined On3‘s Andy Staples on Monday to break down the schedule and list the games that are likely wins. Florida’s first five games of the year are against Miami, Samford, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and UCF, and de le Torre likes their chances to begin the year 5-0.

After that, however, things begin to get a little tougher with matchups on the road against Tennessee and at home against Kentucky.

“I think Miami is better on the lines. I think Florida has a better quarterback. Who knows what Cam Ward will be with that offense. I look at that and you should beat Miami,” de la Torre said. “You should beat Samford. You should beat Texas A&M. Florida has been an absolute disaster away from the swamp, but I think you should beat a brand-new Mississippi State coaching staff with that roster. You should beat UCF at home.

“We’re 5-0 heading to Knoxville here, where you lost the last time you went. You haven’t beat Kentucky since I don’t even know. Kentucky’s starting their own 30-year streak.”

Florida is set to return Graham Mertz at quarterback in 2024 after he transferred in from Wisconsin last season. Mertz threw for 2.093 yards, 20 touchdowns and three interceptions and appeared to be gaining more comfortability in the Gators offense before suffering a season-ending injury in the second to last game of the year.

There’s hope Mertz can take a step forward in his second year, but the offense must replace key pieces in running back Trevor Etienne and receiver Ricky Pearsall. The defense also has plenty of room for improvement after ranking 10th in the SEC with 27.6 points allowed per game.

As if there weren’t already enough questions, the back half of Florida’s schedule is brutal. The Gators face Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State to close out the season. All of those teams are title contenders and it will be tough to pull off an upset.

That in mind, de la Torre could see Florida dropping their final seven games of the year. It’s not a prediction, but he acknowledged the possibility.

“That’s what happened to Florida last year,” he said. “I think Florida hit their five-win total before Georgia and then could not get one more win to get the over last year when their over/under was 5.5. You could theoretically get to 5-0 and be feeling really good about that future over/under that you placed in February and there’s absolutely a road to 5-7 despite a 5-0 start.”

There’s still plenty of time to go before the season starts, and we never really know what’s going to happen. Florida could end up surprising and being much better than expected, but for now this is a realistic outlook.

The Gators will kick off the 2024 season against Miami on Aug. 31 in Gainesville.