Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Florida in 2024

Not many coaches have more riding on the 2024 season than Billy Napier. His first two seasons at Florida have resulted in losing records and the pressure to perform is on. Only problem — the Gators have one of the toughest schedules in the modern era thanks to in-state nonconference games and the new-look SEC.

On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire looked at the Gators’ potential record this year, determining the ceiling and floor. They are not a finished product by any means but there is a world where Florida impresses and collects a few nice wins.

But on the flip, things could trend incredibly south for Napier and the main offseason discussion point surrounding the program is a coaching search.

CEILING: 8-4

Everyone in Florida is looking for a best-case scenario. And despite the roster upgrades, where Bellaire believes a better product, both offensively and defensively, will be put on the field — getting near the double-digit win mark is hard to see in their eyes. The schedule is just so tough.

If Florida is going to stack wins, they need to come early in the season. Staples believes the Miami game is a “toss-up”, citing the on-field coaching of Mario Cristobal. Texas A&M rolls into Gainesville under new head coach Mike Elko, while an early road trip to Mississippi State rounds out September.

Add in two nonconference games and there is a world where Florida starts the year undefeated. From, there, pick off a few games nobody expects the Gators to win in the preseason.

“There is a world where they start off 5-0 and then maybe they beat Tennessee or Kentucky,” Staples said during Wednesday’s episode of Andy Staples On3. “Maybe they beat LSU, maybe Ole Miss has not had the season they had expected and November will look different. Maybe Florida State is a very different-looking team this year. So, I can see that.”

FLOOR: 3-9

Now looking at worst case scenario for Florida, Staples and Bellaire say the Gators’ floor is 3-9. A record that would certainly have Napier looking for a job this offseason, Bellaire wonders if there is a scenario where Florida moves on midseason. Maybe starting the year with a 1-3 record and losing to Mississippi State would do the trick.

“If they’re 1-2, going into Mississippi State,” Bellaire began. “If that team loses on the road to the new Mississippi State Bulldogs with Jeff Lebby at the helm, I think that seat is absolute fire, read hot.”

Staples looks one week down the road when UCF travels to Gainesville in what will be the second game against three in-state opponents. This is one Florida expects to win every time though, just from a sheer branding perspective. UCF is rolling a bit under Gus Malzhan though, closing the gap between the Gators.

It’s not impossible to see the Big 12 program emerging with a win.

“If you lose two of the first four and then you lose to UCF,” Staples said. “For Florida, losing to UCF in the Swamp would as embarrassing as it can get. And I’m here to tell you guys, UCF is pretty good this year.”

Then comes the dreaded back end of the schedule. From Nov. 2 against Georgia to Nov. 30 against Florida State, five games against preseason CFP-hopeful teams occur. Three are away from home as well. Even in the doomsday scenario, Florida needs to find a way to look respectable.

“If they can be above .500 and then in those games at the end of the season — Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, Florida State, Georgia — and you’re playing tight in some of those games,” Staples said. “You’re punching above your weight. That’s how Billy Napier makes it through this year.”