What Florida's Billy Napier must do in 2024 to keep his job

Billy Napier could be in quite the predicament this year considering the kind of season he and the Gators will need to have amidst the schedule that Florida is going to play. With that being the case, On3’s Andy Staples dove into what Napier is actually going to require and what will determine his future down in The Swamp.

Staples discussed what’s ahead of Napier this fall during a mailbag question from his show on Thursday. He began by clarifying that there’s no such thing as an obvious number that they need to reach in the win column. There are some that clearly wouldn’t hurt but a final record is more nuanced than that.

“I don’t know that there’s a magic number for Billy Napier and I don’t want to sound like an AD here. I just think that’s the truth. When the ADs say that at this time of year, they’re not lying. There’s no magic number because there are certain circumstances that would lead them to definitely keep the coach,” said Staples. “Usually that’s like a big, late-season surge – players emerge, the team comes together, you rip off like three wins in your last three and they’re all against really good teams. That sort of thing is the thing that keeps them employed. The inverse of that is true too. Like, you have a hot start and you peter off, you’re probably getting fired.”

That’s especially the case for the slate ahead this upcoming season down in Gainesville. After a difficult enough run in their opening seven, Florida will play five teams looking to contend in some form or another to close out the year. That alone is going to be a massive hurdle to get over in any sense to begin with.

“For Billy Napier, his schedule is extremely backloaded. This is probably the most difficult closing kick we have seen on a team’s schedule, at least on paper, in this century,” Staples stated. “We don’t know that they’re all going to be that good. Like, is LSU going to be as good as it was last year? We don’t know. Ole Miss? It’s still a lot of transfer guys. Does that team coalesce? If it doesn’t, what does it look like at that point in November? I think we can reasonably expect that backend of the schedule to be absolutely gnarly for Florida.”

So, in the end, what’s the goal for the Napier for Staples in 2024? 7-5 with some thoughts to be had for a certain version of 6-6. 5-7 is likely to end his tenure at three years while a poor finish at 6-6 may do it as well. However, one game over .500 or at least a competitive try at 6-6 would be what could earn him a fourth season.

“I would say 7-5 against this schedule – he keeps his job. I don’t think there’s any question about that because that means you’ve beaten some pretty good teams there at the front end of the schedule and you’ve beaten at least two very good teams in the back end of the schedule,” explained Staples. “If you can do that, it probably means you were competitive in the other games with the very good teams on the back end of the schedule. Which, if you can be competitive with those teams and you’re improving? That’s what you want. That’s what you’re looking for. So that’s the hope. If you’re Billy Napier and his staff, that’s what you want to do. Like, that first kick, you want go 4-1 or 5-0. Then you hope you can win two or three on the back end.”

“The 7-5, or anything better than that, is the rosy projection, is the easy one. 6-6 is the challenging one. 5-7? I actually think 5-7 probably gets you fired. You went 6-6 with the No. 4 pick in the draft at quarterback, then you went 5-7. If you go 5-7 again, you’ve kind of told us what you are. You’ve told us you are a middle of the road-record coach. Like, you’ve got enough sample size at that point,” Staples continued. “Now, if it’s 5-7 and they lose by one or they lose in overtime of the last four games in a row, it’s a different story. But, if you’re 5-7, you’re probably not that competitive in those games. Where it gets tricky is if you’re 6-6 – there is a bowl game at that point, you do have more practice time, more time to develop players.”

Napier is 11-14 through two years at Florida with the Gators at just below .500 in both. That may not cut it for a third consecutive year, regardless of how difficult to a winning record looks with this specific schedule.

This is the deal for Napier for this season according to Staples. It’s now just a matter if he posts more of the same or if the Gators show some optimism against some legitimate competition this fall.

“That’s really where it comes down to is how that looks, not necessarily what the record is. I think it’s more how it looks at that point,” Staples said. “It’s so interesting. Like, 5-7? Again, if they go 5-7, I think we can probably be fairly certain what it’s going to look like. 7-5? We can be fairly certain what it looks like, unless there’s just something super flukey.”

“6-6 is where it can get a little wonky and then you have to decide what you’re doing,” said Staples. “I think it’s pretty clear that Billy Napier has to be considerably better. If you’re going to win against the back half of that schedule, you’re going to have to be considerably better.”