Why a strong start to 2024 season is critical to Billy Napier's future at Florida

The 2024 season is going to be a vital one for Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier. After two frustrating seasons, he faces a difficult schedule with big expectations to show how his Gators have taken a step forward.

Andy Staples and Nick de la Torre of Gators Online spoke about the 2024 season on Andy Staples On3. In particular, they broke down why the early part of the schedule is so critical to Napier’s future at Florida. That starts with a home game against in-state rival Miami.

“I don’t think Billy Napier’s job rides on the result of the Miami game,” Andy Staples said. “But I do think if Florida’s not 4-1 after the first five, the path to 7-5 or a result that feels like you’re confident going forward, I think the path is very narrow.”

The Florida Gators and Miami Hurricanes are, interestingly enough, in very similar situations heading into the 2024 season. That’s something that Nick de la Torre noticed and emphasized the value of for both sides in his rivalry.

“I might start calling Week 1 the Hope Bowl. Both coaches hired in the same offseason, they’re under .500, they’re selling hope to their fanbases. This is a former yearly rivalry, as you can see from the comments calling them the ‘candy canes.’ Miami fans have a certain way of spelling Gators that we don’t need to say on the show. But there’s no love lost between the fanbases. Good luck selling hope if you’re Billy Napier or Mario Cristobal losing this game,” de la Torre said.

“Yes, Florida and Miami will play next year but who knows when they’ll play after that? It’s not like Florida-Florida State where every year, every 365, you have a chance to grab those bragging rights. You don’t know when you’ll have the chance to grab those bragging rights and Billy Napier doesn’t have the excuse that Mario will have of, ‘We had to go on the road, and it was a hostile environment. We had a bunch of transfers playing their first game for us.’ So, there’s almost a built-in excuse, not that many Canes fans want to hear it, but a built-in excuse for Miami being on the road that Billy Napier doesn’t have playing that game at home.”

Beyond just the Miami game, Florida needs to get off to a fast start because the first half of the season is significantly more manageable than the second half. So, without a very strong start, the end record could be a bad one for Billy Napier.

“Looking at Florida’s schedule, beat Miami, beat Samford. You have back-to-back first-year head coaches after that, first-year programs. Then, UCF. I think UCF is a tougher game than people are giving it credit for with KJ Jefferson who is, I think, the actual quarterback that Gus Malzahn would make in EA 25 this summer to run his offense. Then you have to go to Tennessee, and Florida is 2-10 away from the Swamp under Billy Napier. They have given me no confidence that they can pick up their show down the road and run the same act,” de la Torre said.

“So, you look at that schedule, catch wins early because you might catch hands late. Starting in November, it’s just a brutal November with those five games from Georgia though Florida State. I agree with you. I think you would have to be 5-1, 6-1 heading into Georgia. 6-1 heading into Georgia you could end up 6-6.”

In his first two seasons, Billy Napier went just 11-14 and missed out on a bowl game in 2023. Florida fans are going to expect an improvement on that, starting with that Miami game to open the season.

“There’s a significant hill to climb, right here, and we’ll see,” Staples said. “I think you’re right about the hope and the Florida-Miami thing because they’re not playing every year and because this is such a rare occurrence, at least the winning fanbase is gonna be humble and will handle it with grace and dignity and class. I’m sure.”