Breaking down the 2023 Florida State season using the over/under

Florida State is a preseason darling ahead of the 2023 college football season, returning a wealth of talent at key positions while adding through the portal. It seems Mike Norvell’s outfit is poised to surpassed the 9.5-win over/under that Vegas has tagged them with.

On Tuesday, On3’s Andy Staples and J.D. PicKell hashed out whether or not they think the Seminoles exceed or fall short of that 9.5-win mark. Generally, both are bullish on Florida State ahead of the 2023 season.

“So I really like the way they’re built and I don’t think they’re going to be a team that gets caught with like the deer in the headlights syndrome. Like sometimes you see these numbers and it’s a talented roster but a lot of it’s unproven. I think Florida State over 9.5 is the way I’m going on this one,” PicKell said.

Both Staples and PicKell highlighted some of the transfers Florida State brought in as reasons for their optimism.

On top of returning quarterback Jordan Travis and wideout Johnny Wilson, the Seminoles added wide receiver Keon Coleman and tight end Jaheim Bell in the transfer portal.

With a deep, talented group, Staples is with PicKell on the over. That would mean a 10-win season for the Seminoles and, likely, a trip to the ACC Championship Game.

“So I am gonna take the over for Florida State. Double-digit wins. I realize this is double-digit regular season wins. That means they’re in Charlotte,” Staples said. “I think that feels perfectly reasonable for this team. We heard Mike Norvell on the show this week, JD, and very confident. You think about all that this veteran group has been through and then they’ve added pieces like Keon Coleman, like Jaheim Bell to it. It feels like there’s a little more margin for error for them.”

The month of September looms incredibly large for the Seminoles and will be significant to their chances to hit 10 wins or more. To open the year, Florida State plays LSU in Orlando on Sunday, Sept. 3, and will play Clemson in Death Valley at the end of the month.

Clemson is no longer directly in the way of a trip to the ACC Championship Game, as the league has ditched divisions and gone to a model where the Top 2 finishers go to the title game. A pair of losses to LSU and Clemson wouldn’t necessarily knock Florida State out of the CFP race, as the Seminoles would still have a path to a conference championship.

Either way, it would slim their margin. However, Staples thinks the Seminoles will at least split with LSU and Clemson.

“So you could lose to LSU, lose to Clemson and still hit the over. Now, that doesn’t leave you any room for error, but I suspect they’re gonna split the LSU and the Clemson, first time around, which would give them a place where they can have a hiccup there and still hit the over,” Staples said.

Either way, though, Florida State will have to come out of the gates hot to get on the inside track to getting double-digit wins and hitting the over.

“It’s interesting because they very well could lose that very first game against LSU on Sunday in Orlando,” PicKell said.