ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Florida State in 2023

Coming into the 2023 season, the Florida State Seminoles are one of college football’s most interesting teams. After winning 10 games in 2022, the Seminoles are hoping to take a step forward in 2023 and compete to win the ACC too.

Amid all of this intrigue, ESPN has released its FPI projections for the season. That includes a game-by-game projection for the Seminoles and a separate projection for their overall record.

One of the reasons why there is so much excitement surrounding this Seminoles’ team is that they return tons of talent, including star quarterback Jordan Travis who may even compete for the Heisman Trophy. So, with the excitement of tons of returning talent in Tallahassee, here is a look at those FPI projections for the 2023 season.

Sept. 3: Florida State vs. LSU – 34.1% chance of win

Florida State plays one of the premier non-conference games of the entire season when the Seminoles welcome the LSU Tigers to Orlando for a rematch of last year’s game in New Orleans. This is, technically speaking, a neutral site game, but it should be more like a home game for the Seminoles than for the Tigers.

Last season, the Seminoles set the tone for their season with a win in this game. In the end, LSU bounced back from that loss and won the SEC West, though, and that has made it so there is a ton of excitement surrounding both teams coming into the year. Ultimately, FPI prefers LSU, giving the Seminoles only a 34.1 percent chance to win this game.

Sept. 9: Florida State vs. Southern Miss – 93.2% chance of win

After opening against LSU in Orlando, Mike Norvell and the Seminoles will return to Tallahassee where they’re going to welcome Southern Miss out of the Sun Belt. In terms of raw talent, the Seminoles should be able to win this game and FPI expects exactly that, giving Florida State a 93.2 percent chance to win.

At the same time, Florida State can’t get complacent against Southern Miss. Coached by Will Hall and led by Frank Gore Jr. on offense, the Golden Eagles are capable of knocking off better teams than themselves if you’re not paying attention.

Sept. 16: Florida State at Boston College – 81.8% chance of win

Florida State will open up ACC play on the road against Boston College. The Eagles don’t have nearly the same raw talent that the Seminoles do and have major questions at the quarterback position to answer this season. So, as FPI predicted by giving the Seminoles an 81.8 percent chance of winning, this should be a game the Seminoles win.

At the same time, there are challenges that come with playing Boston College. The Eagles are a well-coached team and this is a road game. On top of that, it’s going to be important to stay focused on this ACC opponent given the game coming up a week later.

Sept. 23: Florida State at Clemson – 31.3% chance of win

Between LSU and then a road trip to Clemson, the tone for Florida State’s entire season is going to be set by the end of September. Wins in these games will announce that the Seminoles are ready to compete on the national stage. Losses might mean that the team still needs time. A split could leave the Seminoles somewhere in between.

Last season, the Seminoles dropped their game against the Tigers. That was the seventh win for Clemson in a row during this series. It was also a third close loss in a row last season to a ranked opponent for the Seminoles. Now, the Seminoles need to travel to Death Valley to get over that hump. FPI isn’t thrilled with their chances, only giving Florida State a 31.3 percent chance to win the game.

Oct. 7: Florida State vs. Virginia Tech – 89.2% chance of win

After the Clemson game, Florida State is going to get a bye week before taking on the Virginia Tech Hokies. This will be a home game for the Seminoles. Meanwhile, the Hokies have a lot of things to figure out amid what looks like it’s going to be a massive rebuild for head coach Brent Pry.

These two didn’t meet in conference play last season. In fact, the two haven’t actually played in a game since the 2018 season. That was a Virginia Tech win to kick off the Willie Taggart era in Tallahassee, and it wasn’t a particularly close game either. These teams are at different places now, though, and FPI gives Florida State an 89.2 percent chance to win.

Oct. 14: Florida State vs. Syracuse – 75.4% chance of win

Last season, Florida State traveled to Syracuse and blew out the Orange to the tune of 38-3. That was amid an awesome stretch for the Seminoles, who won their final six games to win the season, including four straight ACC games by multiple scores.

This year, the Orange are going to have to travel to Tallahassee, and while Syracuse should have a solid team in 2023, FPI doesn’t think that will matter. Instead, ESPN’s FPI gives Florida State a 75.4 percent chance to beat Syracuse. The Seminoles will hope for similar a result as they earned last season in this game.

Oct. 21: Florida State vs. Duke – 83.5% chance of win

In 2022, Duke was one of the biggest surprises of the college football season. In head coach Mike Elko‘s first season, the Blue Devils went 9-4, improving on a 3-9 record the previous year. However, Duke and Florida State didn’t meet on the field at all last year.

The Seminoles and Blue Devils last met on the field in 2020. That was a Florida State win. In fact, the Blue Devils have never beaten the Seminoles. Including vacated wins, the Seminoles are 21-0 all time against Duke. FPI expects that run of dominance to continue, giving FSU an 83.5 percent chance to win.

Oct. 28: Florida State at Wake Forest – 66.9% chance of win

In recent seasons, Wake Forest has been an incredibly tough opponent. That’s largely due to the coaching of Dave Clawson, who has the Demon Deacons rolling. That success included beating Florida State in Tallahassee last season by two scores. This year, the Seminoles will seek a little payback on the road.

FPI is favoring the Seminoles to win this game, giving them a 66.9 percent chance of extracting some revenge. Part of that might come down to the loss of quarterback Sam Hartman, who chose to transfer to Notre Dame. Replacing him is going to be the biggest key to Wake Forest’s success this season.

Nov. 4: Florida State at Pitt – 60.2% chance of win

Pitt is another ACC opponent who Florida State didn’t play in 2022. In 2023, the Panthers are going to pose an interesting challenge. Known for their tough defense and chaotic games, Pitt can turn any game into a slug-fest. On top of that, this is a road game to the north in November with a key rivalry game to look forward to next week.

FPI does have Florida State down as the favorite in this game, giving them a 60.2 percent chance to win. Like several other teams, Pitt has questions to answer at the quarterback position. However, those should be answered by the time these two meet in November.

Nov. 11: Florida State vs. Miami – 71.9% chance of win

Florida State fans are still basking in their win over Miami last season. 45-3, it was an absolute beatdown that you rarely see in an intense rivalry like this one. However, it wasn’t the largest margin of victory in the series. That would be 47-0, a margin that both teams have won by. It’s not likely that the Seminoles break that record, of course, but they sure would like to.

Now in their second season under Mario Cristobal, Miami is hoping to be more competitive. One way they’re trying to rebuild is by bringing in two new coordinators. So, at the very least, the Hurricanes are going to give the Seminoles a new look. Still, FPI is giving Florida State a 71.9 percent chance to win.

Nov. 18: Florida State vs. North Alabama – 99% chance of win

In the second to last week of the regular season, Florida State will welcome North Alabama to Tallahassee. This game shouldn’t be close, given that North Alabama is an FCS school that was a Division II program until 2017.

At the same time, there is always the chance of an upset. That’s part of what makes college football the exciting sport that it has become over its history. At the same time, FPI giving the Seminoles a 99 percent chance to win this game feels pretty definitive.

Nov. 25: Florida State at Florida – 49.9% chance of win

Florida State will end its regular season with a trip to Gainesville to play the Florida Gators. This really is one of the iconic rivalry games in college football and last year it provided one of the most exciting games of the season. The Seminoles won that game 45-38. In 2023, Florida State is going to look to push that winning streak to two games and get its first win in Gainesville since 2017.

FPI doesn’t think this is going to be a particularly easy game, though. The Seminoles only have a 49.9 percent chance to win the game, making it a coin-flip game as of now. That might be a little surprising to some, given where Florida is during its rebuild under Billy Napier. However, the Gators still have plenty of talent and are hosting the game.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for FSU, 8.4-3.6

One important thing about these FPI projections to clarify is that the final record prediction for a given team is different than the projection for individual games. One is looking out at the entire season. The other is looking at individual games in a vacuum. That’s why Florida State is only the FPI underdog in three games, but is projected to lose 3.6 while winning 8.4 over the course of the season.

Overall, ESPN has Florida State 14th in its FPI rankings to start the season. The Seminoles are sitting pretty, just in between Utah and Oregon. It also gives FSU a 94.0 percent chance to win six games and a 5.3 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff this season. Clemson and LSU are the only two opponents on the Seminoles’ schedule who are ranked ahead of them in terms of FPI.

Ultimately, only time will tell how accurate these projections are going to be. Still, it’s hard not to be excited about Florida State in 2023.