ESPN predicts every game outcome on Florida State's 2024 schedule
It’s now the fifth year for the Florida State Seminoles under Mike Norvell and after winning the ACC last season, they’re not going to catch anyone by surprise. At the same time, Florida State is also going into the 2024 season with much higher expectations.
ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) is providing some interesting insight into Florida State heading into the season. In particular, before any games are played this season, it’s very high on the Seminoles. That includes predicting that Florida State is the favorite in every individual game this season, except for one. Overall, however, FPI is predicting the Seminoles go about 8-4 or 9-3 on the season.
Florida State starts in Ireland for Week 0 and goes on from there, with ESPN using FPI to predict the outcome of every game this season.
Aug. 24: Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (Dublin) — 79.7% chance of win
Florida State opens with a conference game against Georgia Tech in Dublin. It’s a Week 0 matchup and all of that makes this a potentially tricky and unique atmosphere for a football game. Still, FPI is confident that the Seminoles are going to be able to take care of business to open the year.
Still, Georgia Tech looks like an improving team. Coming off a season where they went 7-6, winning a bowl game, there is hope the Yellow Jackets can build on that. A big piece of that is going to come down to quarterback Haynes King and his development.
Sep. 2: Florida State vs. Boston College — 84.5% chance of win
The breakdown of the schedule doesn’t necessarily get easier from there for the Seminoles. From Dublin, Florida State returns home to Tallahassee for another ACC game. Despite the international travel, the Seminoles also won’t get a week off despite playing abroad.
As for Boston College, the Eagles are a team in transition this season. New head coach Bill O’Brien is coming in, acting as a head coach for the first time since 2020 when he led the Houston Texans. Still, the Eagles are a rebuild and FPI gives Florida State a solid chance to win.
Sep. 14: Florida State vs. Memphis — 87.9% chance of win
After a week off, there will be an interesting game for Mike Norvell when he welcomes Memphis to Tallahassee. Norvell, of course, coached at Memphis before taking the job with Florida State, helping to build the Tigers into one of the top Group of Five programs in the country.
The game itself could be tricky, with Memphis looking to add a marquee win as they fight to be the G5 representative in the expanded College Football Playoff. At the same time, the Seminoles are the much better team on paper and with that, FPI predicts the Seminoles win.
Sep. 21: Florida State vs. Cal — 81.3% chance of win
Conference realignment has done some weird things. One of those weird things is moving the Cal Golden Bears to the Atlantic Coast Conference. That also makes this the third conference game for the Seminoles early in the 2024 schedule.
Cal is coming off a season where they went 6-7, losing their bowl game. That was their seventh season under Justin Wilcox, who is once again returning. Despite some struggles in recent seasons, he’s had success in the past there and the new conference could act as a spark.
Sep. 28: Florida State at SMU — 58.2% chance of win
Another new team to the ACC is SMU. The Mustangs are moving up from the AAC to get to the conference and are a dark horse pick from many experts heading into the season. So, maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise to see that FPI has this only being a close win for Florida State.
SMU is led by Rhett Lashlee at head coach. An offensive-minded coach, he has stops at Auburn and Miami among other teams before getting the starting job at SMU. There, he has an 18-9 record over two seasons including an 11-win season in 2023.
Oct. 5: Florida State vs. Clemson — 61% chance of win
In what is expected to be one of the biggest ACC games all season long, Florida State will host the Clemson Tigers in their first game during the month of October. This is a game that has the potential to be an ACC Championship Game preview, with head coach Dabo Swinney looking to reload the roster.
Before any games have been played, FPI is looking at Florida State as a relatively small favorite to win this game. That comes a year after Florida State beat Clemson on the road. That was FSU’s first win over the Tigers since 2014.
Oct. 18: Florida State at Duke — 75.3% chance of win
Another team with a new head coach coming into the 2024 season is Duke. Manny Diaz replaces Mike Elko as he moves on to take over at Texas A&M. That transition is going to be interesting to watch but the Blue Devils are, at least, coming off an eight-win season.
With all of that in mind, Florida State is once again the favorite to win this game. At the same time, this comes at a very difficult time in the schedule for the Seminoles, sandwiched between the tough game against Clemson and a road trip to play rival Miami.
Oct. 26: Florida State at Miami — 58.1% chance of win
Much like Florida State, the Miami Hurricanes are coming into the 2024 season with very high expectations. That’s after going 12-13 in head coach Mario Cristobal‘s first two seasons with the program and is largely because of the moves the coaching staff made to improve the roster going into this season.
This game could be another ACC Championship Game preview and there are a few challenges that come with it. For one, this game is on the road. It’s also amid a stretch of difficult games for the Seminoles. Despite all that, FSU is still a slight favorite to win this game.
Nov. 2: Florida State vs. North Carolina — 77.6% chance of win
Florida State will then return home to play the North Carolina Tar Heels. This is, again, a tricky game with how it falls in the schedule. Oddly enough, it’s also the final conference game of the season. It comes immediately after what promises to be an emotional game and before what is, on paper, the team’s biggest test all season.
Even trying to replace Drake Maye at quarterback, the Tar Heels won’t be a pushover this season. North Carolina is still a talented team that can do damage. On top of that, throughout head coach Mack Brown‘s tenure, they’ve consistently found good quarterback play.
Nov. 9: Florida State at Notre Dame — 29.5% chance of win
The game against Notre Dame is the only individual game that FPI is predicting Florida State will lose. In fact, it gives the Seminoles a mere 29.5% chance to go into South Bend and beat the Irish in November. That’s largely more a compliment to Notre Dame than an insult to FSU.
Coming into the year, the Irish are seen as one of the teams in contention for a spot in the College Football Playoff. They’re going to be a dominant defensive team and have been known for their strong offensive lines for years now. That’s going to make this game a battle at the end of a long stretch of difficult games.
Nov. 23: Florida State vs. Charleston Southern — 99% chance of win
Florida State will get to take a week off before returning home for a game against an FCS opponent. Unsurprisingly, the Seminoles have a 99 percent chance to win. That should offer a nice reset opportunity for the Seminoles too, after a difficult stretch before this.
Staying healthy in this game is going to be huge. It was in the FCS game that last season’s starting quarterback Jordan Travis was injured. That was devastating to the 2023 season and while the Seminoles won that game, it did create issues down the stretch.
Nov. 30: Florida State vs. Florida — 66.1% chance of win
As is tradition, the Florida State Seminoles end the regular season with a game against the Florida Gators. This year, the game is going to be played in Tallahassee. The Seminoles are also a relatively comfortable favorite to win it.
The Seminoles are now on a two-game winning streak over the Gators, dating back to the 2022 season. The longest winning streak in this series for the Seminoles is five, which was during the Jimbo Fisher era. The hope for Seminoles fans is that they can continue their winning streak and get closer to that overall mark.
In the expanded College Football Playoff, Florida State is going to be expected to not just compete for the ACC but for a spot in that Playoff. Certainly, there will be several marquee games on this schedule that should help the Seminoles make their case for the Playoff.