Kirk Herbstreit, CFP crew debate Florida State's Playoff chances after Jordan Travis injury, rankings drop

Florida State took a hit in the College Football Playoff rankings this week following a season-ending injury to Jordan Travis. The Seminoles dropped from No. 4 to No. 5, putting them outside the Playoff field if the season were to end today.

The path to the Playoff is still there for FSU if it were to win against Florida on Saturday and in the ACC Championship against Louisville. No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan are set to play this week as well, a spot in the top four will open up.

However, ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit believes the Seminoles should also be worried about the teams behind it in the rankings. Oregon, Texas and Alabama all still have chances to win a conference championship, with the possibility that one of them could jump Florida State.

“The result of that (Ohio State-Michigan) game will be interesting to see the loser, where they drop and how far they drop,” Herbstreit said. “If I’m Florida State, I’m not just worried what’s ahead of me. I’m looking what’s behind me. Oregon, Texas, Alabama all have opportunities in upcoming weeks to win a conference championship.

“How will the committee look at an Oregon if they beat Oregon State and they beat this Washington team? How will the committee handle Oregon and Washington if Oregon beats Washington and Washington already beat Oregon? Who gets the benefit of the doubt? Is it the team that won last? Texas is coming. They’re not gonna be left out if Texas wins out. Florida State’s in a tricky spot. They were already in a tricky spot. Now moving down to five, they definitely are.”

Booger McFarland, however, believes that Florida State should get in no matter what if it wins out. He argued that the committee didn’t appear to drop the Seminoles because of the injury to Travis, but rather because of Washington earning another quality win against Oregon State.

Although the Huskies may have a better resume than Florida State, McFarland can’t imagine any of the teams behind it, which all have one loss, leapfrogging the Seminoles if they finish undefeated.

“If you beat Florida and you go to the ACC Championship Game and you beat Louisville, an undefeated ACC champion Florida State is getting in,” he said. “They didn’t hurt them or put them down so bad for the loss of Jordan Travis. Only moved them one spot. That spot wasn’t because of the injury. That spot was because Washington went on the road and got another data point for performing.”

Rece Davis, however, believes the injury to Travis has to play a factor. He pointed to the 2014 season when Cardale Jones took over for an injured JT Barrett at Ohio State late in the season.

Like Florida State, the Buckeyes were No. 5 in the Playoff rankings heading into conference championship week. Jones went on to throw for three touchdowns in a 59-0 rout of Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game as Ohio State got in as the No. 4 team. It went on to win the national championship with Jones leading the way.

Davis believes that for Florida State to have a similar chance, backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker must “prove it” to the committee.

“You have to factor in the injury,” Davis said. “It’s your job. If you’re not factoring in the injury, they’re not doing their job. Cardale Jones had a chance to prove it. Tate Rodemaker’s gonna have a chance to prove it. That’s the point that we should be looking at. Ohio State was out of it until Cardale Jones proved it.”

It should be noted that unlike the Seminoles, Ohio State had one loss already that season. That being the case, it’s possible that Florida State could get in on the back of an undefeated record alone.

The Seminoles will get their opportunity to show they’re still a championship caliber team when they kick off against Florida at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday in Gainesville.