Why Florida State must use 2023 to capitalize on struggles of Florida, Miami

There is a lot of college football history in the state of Florida, but it’s Florida State who enters 2023 in the best shape. The Seminoles are coming off of their first 10-win season since 2016 and are one of the preseason favorites in the ACC with dreams of a College Football Playoff appearance.

The same can’t be said for Florida and Miami, both of which are coming off of losing seasons and entering the second season under their respective head coaches. Still, there is plenty of optimism regarding the future of the Gators and Hurricanes, and one can’t expect them to continue on this track forever.

On3’s JD PicKell explained in a recent episode of The Hard Count why FSU must take advantage of the current situation to stake their claim as the state’s top program.

“Time is of the essence in the Sunshine State,” he said. “Your rivals, Miami and Florida, they’re down right now. I don’t think you can expect them to stay down. Why? Because those are two brands that have a lot of brand power across the country, especially in the Sunshine State. They have coaches that, maybe they didn’t meet expectations for what you would’ve hoped a big-time Year 1 would have looked like, but both Billy Napier at Florida and Mario Cristobal at Miami, they understand the importance of recruiting.

“You don’t have head coaches over there that are just saying, ‘yeah, OK, we’ll figure it out.’ No shade to Dan Mullen, but this is not a Dan Mullen-type operation at Florida. Billy Napier, for all the things you may think he lacks, he does not lack the understanding of how important recruiting is. Same thing for Mario Cristobal. We saw what they did in the 2023 cycle. They’re gonna prioritize getting top talent to The U.”

Florida State’s success this past season resulted in the Seminoles landing a solid recruiting class that ranked No. 19 in the On3 Industry Team Rankings. However, they still came in behind both Miami (No. 6) and Florida (No. 12).

That’s certainly a concern for the Seminoles, and there is a possibility the disparity could grow if they were to fail to live up to their lofty expectations this season.

“With the way they’re prioritizing recruiting, if Florida State were to, let’s say, underachieve this year and win eight games,” PicKell said. “Let’s say Miami achieves about what Vegas thinks they can achieve and they win eight games. Then Miami can go and tell that kid, ‘you can go to Florida State if you want, but you saw what they did. This was supposed to be their year and they took a half step back. Look at us. Look at the way we’re trending right now. I’m only in Year 2 and I’m winning eight games? Come be a part of the way this thing is going.’ You don’t want to give Miami that firepower. I promise you, they’re not going to stay down. You can’t count on both Florida and Miami staying down.”

Miami and Florida aren’t the only in-state teams FSU has to worry about, however. UCF joins the Big 12 starting this season and is sure to get a boost from being affiliated with a Power 5 conference.

But if Florida State takes care of business in 2023, it can separate itself from the rest of those schools and continue to build its brand going forward.

“A subplot of this thing (is) UCF,” PicKell said. “They’ve got some Power 5 branding now, too. They’ve got some juice now they can take on the recruiting trail. Maybe they don’t have the same bait on the hook when it comes to fishing for these recruits, meaning they don’t have the same tradition or the same history behind their brand at UCF. But even so, that is another line in the water. That is another competitor in your space trying to grab top talent that’s a Power 5 school.

“So if you were to go and do everything you expect to do, meaning you win the ACC, you make the College Football Playoff. You establish that you are big bro, claim your rank as the top school in the state of Florida and you have the ability to kinda turn down the volume on some of those things that those schools would use against you if you were to underachieve this year.”