Predicting ceiling, floor for Houston in 2024 season

The Houston Cougars transitioned from the AAC to the Big 12 in 2023. It didn’t go the way they had hoped. So, the program moved on from head coach Dana Holgorsen to Willie Fritz.

It’s a new era of Houston football. With that in mind, Andy Staples and Ari Temkin of Big 12 Radio dove into Houston for the upcoming season on Andy Staples On3. In doing so, they broke down what the potential ceiling and floor are going to be for the Cougars in 2024.

Unfortunately, for Houston fans, the prognosis isn’t good. Neither Staples nor Temkin are giving Houston a ceiling where they’d go to a bowl game. Meanwhile, they debated the floor, but it was suggested they could win as few as a single game this season.

CEILING: 5-7/4-8

The new head coach of the Houston Cougars is going to be Willie Fritz, one of the best-respected coaches in college football today. However, that doesn’t mean that the Cougars are going to be immediately competitive in the Big 12.

“They bring in Willie Fritz from Tulane, who is a builder of programs,” Andy Staples said. “We’ve seen it at Tulane, at Georgia Southern. We’ve seen it going back to the FCS ranks. Can Willie Fritz build here and how long will that take? Because he doesn’t inherit a roster that is immediately competitive, especially when you’re non-conference includes UNLV that played for the Mountain West championship last year and at Oklahoma.”

Ari Temkin added to that, praising Fritz and predicting that he’s going to have plenty of long-term success with Houston. In particular, he praised his connections within the region for the purposes of recruiting.

“I think Willie Fritz is gonna be very successful at Houston. I think Houston has a chance to be one of the premier teams in this conference moving forward. It’s a combination of the talent pool that you have in Houston, and then the talent pool in areas that Willie Fritz is very familiar with. Houston is very close to the Texas-Louisiana border,” Temkin said. “Obviously, Fritz has a lot of connection to the state of Louisiana, to New Orleans. So, I just think in that hotbed of talent in Texas and Louisiana, and the Houston area he’s gonna pull some big-time players, so I think he’s gonna be very successful because of that history you mentioned. He’s been a coach in Texas and the state of Louisiana over multiple times in multiple years.”

At that point, Staples ripped off the band-aid because neither had a ton of positive feelings about the way this season is going to go for Houston.

“We don’t need to belabor the point on Houston,” Staples said. “The Houston fans don’t want to hear this anyway, but this could be a tough year. I’m gonna go with a ceiling of 5-7.”

Temkin wasn’t so positive and ended up putting a maximum number of four wins on the Cougars’ 2024 season.

FLOOR: 3-9/1-11

Ari Temkin wanted to make it clear that while he believes in Houston long-term under Willie Fritz, he doesn’t believe in the Cougars this season. That starts with the quarterback position.

“So, I’m a big believer in Willie Fritz. The question is how good are they going to be this year and that I’m just not sure about,” Temkin said.

“Donovan Smith is an experienced quarterback [coming off shoulder surgery, Staples added] and he’s just not a very accurate passer. Look at his completion percentage numbers over the course of his career. Just not high enough. You’re talking about low 60s to be a college quarterback. Just misses too often. Too many interceptions. So, I don’t have a very high ceiling for Houston this year, but I think I have a very high ceiling for Willie Fritz overall.”

He even added that he has Houston at the bottom of the Big 12 rankings at this point for the 2024 season.

“This is my preseason number 16 team in the conference,” Temkin said. “Look at the non-conference. At Oklahoma and Rice. I mean, they lost to Rice last year. I’ll say it, their floor is one win and their ceiling is four.”

Likewise, Staples thinks that Houston should be looking to build for the long-term and that means that Houston could have a very bad 2024 season in the short-term.

“I’m gonna go with a floor of 3-9. I think they’re gonna get there under Willie Fritz, but like you said, this is probably not the year that happens,” Staples said. “It starts this year and then they kind of develop into that…I put it there at three just because I believe in Willie Fritz. I believe in him as a motivator and developer of talent. So, I’m thinking by the end of the season they can knock off a couple wins. But also, when you play Kansas, Utah, Kansas State in a row, that’s no fun. That’s no fun at all.”

Willie Fritz took over as the head coach at Central Missouri in 1997 and has been a head coach every season since then. During that time, he has one season with four or fewer wins.