Why On3 is Higher than the Industry on Four-Star Houston Signee Mercy Miller

Recent Houston signee Mercy Miller is an interesting prospect. Here at On3, we are higher than the industry on the 6-foot-4, 180-pound guard from Sherman Oaks (CA) Notre Dame High School ranking him the No. 31 overall player in the 2024 On3 150. 

On3 leaves nothing to question when we talk about the objective of our rankings. The goal of our rankings is to assess a prospect’s long-term potential, ultimately manifested by the NBA Draft. Our ranking is not to assess who had the best high school career or who will be the best college player. This is why we will shoot to end each cycle with 14 five-star prospects following the lead of the NBA Draft Lottery. This can be different from others, but our vision with rankings is draft night. 

On3 has Miller ranked No. 31. He is ranked No. 90 for 247, he is No. 62 with Rivals, and he is unranked on ESPN. This puts Miller as the No. 72 ranked player in the 2024 On3 Industry Ranking. Criteria can be different across the industry when it comes to players and the order they are ranked. So let’s break down why On3 is higher on Mercy Miller than the industry.

Mercy Miller’s Connective Pieces

Before we jump into Mercy Miller’s game, let’s go ahead and let the readers know that he is the son of Master P. 

Miller has played on good teams, with very talented players, throughout high school. His freshman season was at Minneapolis (MN) Minnehaha Prep with Chet Holmgren and Prince Aligbe (Boston College). In his sophomore season, Miller went to Mouth of Wilson (VA) Oak Hill Academy where he played with Chris Livingston, Caleb Foster (Duke), Judah Mintz (Syracuse), and others. Miller transferred last season, with Foster, to join up with Dusty Stromer (Gonzaga) at Sherman Oaks (CA) Notre Dame High. 

With so many good players around him, Miller has never been asked to be a featured piece. However, what he has done, is shown that at 6-foot-4, he can effectively dribble, shoot, and pass from either guard position on the floor. 

Last season, teamed with two top-100 players who are currently earning minutes as freshmen at Duke and Gonzaga, Miller averaged 17.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists. The ball moved when it hit Miller’s hands, and he was able to make plays for everyone on the floor. 

The NBA is a superstar’s league, with more than 80 percent of the players, considered role players. Miller has good length and a sturdy frame. While he is not super-bursty with the ball in his hands, he plays with great pace and is able to get to his spots on the floor. You quickly notice the efficiency. 

Miller plays balanced and within two or three dribbles in the half-court. He is comfortable scoring at each level, showing vertical pop at the rim, comfort in the mid-range, and consistent release and form with three-point range. 

Miller Moves into a Featured Role

This season, Notre Dame High is Mercy Miller’s team to lead. He has stepped into the featured player role, and the early returns have been more than positive. In a win last week, Miller scored a school record 68 points. 

Early returns show that Miller has had no problem stepping into more of an alpha character this season. Along with the 68-point outburst, Miller has had games of 36, 31, 24 (twice), and 23 points this season. 

In those five games listed above, Miller is shooting 49.0 percent from the field and 36.1 percent from three. His efficient ways have carried over from his playing off others’ creating opportunities to having to self-create. Miller shot 39.3 percent from three last season, on 4.8 attempts per game.

Miller is a shooting guard looking ahead, but he is an off-ball guard who can handle some secondary creation and get a team into sets off the bounce. Even with his scoring average approaching 30, he is still averaging 6.0 assists per game, with a 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio, showing comfort with different roles, on and off the ball.

He Picked the Right School

Mercy Miller committed to Houston as a sophomore. The four-star guard was not even old enough to take official visits yet, and he committed with little to-do surrounding his announcement. 

His commitment to Houston stuck for the duration, as Miller ended up signing with the Cougars during the early signing period. When looking at Houston’s track record, not only are they 103-14 over the past four seasons, they have had success with guards who are similar to Miller. 

Marcus Sasser (2023) and Quentin Grimes (2021) were both drafted in the first round of their respective NBA Drafts. Houston also has guards Nathaniel Hinton, Danuel House, and Armani Brooks who have each logged NBA minutes this season.

Kelvin Sampson has a track record of developing and getting the most out of players in Miller’s archetype. 

Miller on Defense

Mercy Miller is a good team defender. He has great length and natural anticipation. He gets a lot of his deflections and steals off of his instincts instead of his athleticism. When he locks in, Miller also has a ‘want-to’ when guarding the ball. While I would not say he has the fastest feet moving laterally, he does have a keen understanding of angles and footwork. 

Miller does well in the passing lanes, he is aggressive there, getting a good number of deflections. That is also where a majority of his steals come from, team defense, and playing off the ball. 

While I would not call Miller a lockdown-type defender, I do think he has a very good understanding and a toughness about him on the defensive end that helps him to produce stops on that end. 

Miller is also averaging 9.6 rebounds so far this season. This is up from the 8.8 that he averaged last year.

Projecting Miller Moving Forward

While Mercy Miller does not have as much flash as some of his peers in this recruiting cycle, his substance is clear as day. Miller has a lengthy frame, standing 6-foot-4, with a lot of projectability as he gets into a college strength program. 

He can also handle, shoot, and pass with confidence. While the ball does not stick with Miller, he is adept at finishing plays. Whether it passing a teammate over or knocking down shots. This season, when Miller is the go-to, featured player, he is approaching 30 points per game while dishing out 6.0 assists. He is comfortable on or off the ball, and most importantly, he is able to play with other good players.

There is a smooth nature to Miller’s game that is hard to ignore. There is also a mental fortitude that he exudes. Houston has had success with guards in the NBA Draft, and word coming from around the Cougar program, they think Mercy Miller is next in line.