Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Illinois in 2024

Illinois failed to make the postseason in 2023 after winning eight seasons during the second year of Bret Bielma’s tenure in Champaign. Entering 2024, how likely is it for the Fighting Illini to find their way back to the postseason after falling one game short a year ago?

According to FanDuel SportsBook, the over/under win total for Illinois this coming season is 5.5 — meaning their postseason hopes could come down to the wire during the regular season. Losing production on the offensive and defensive end of the football after 2023, there are still a lot of unknowns about this year’s Illinois squad.

Ahead of the upcoming season, On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire broke down what they believe to be the floor and ceiling for the Illini in 2024.

Ceiling: 7-5

Ending the season on a positive note would see Illinois make a postseason bid. Missing a bowl game in seven of the lsat nine seasons, eclipsing that six win threshold is how to gauge the Illini’s success this coming season.

However, the way Illinois’ schedule is laid out may throw a wrench in these plans.

“You get in Nebraska and Rutgers on the road, which you’re hoping to split if you’re Illinois,” Bellaire told Staples. “That’s an extremely tough six games on the schedule that I think, at this point, you’d say they’re probably big underdogs going into 2024. … You lose your leading receiver, though and your leading rusher from last year which is concerning. But man, I just go back to the schedule and I say best case for them as honestly 6-6. Maybe 7-5 if you can split one of those Rutgers or Nebraska games. Then you’re alright.”

Bellaire said that if the Fighting Illini end up winning a game in the postseason — it’s “mission accomplished,” for Illinois in 2024.

Floor: 3-9

Being met with Kansas in Week 2, road matchups against Nebraska, Penn State, Oregon, Rutgers and Northwestern — things could turn on the Illini down the stretch this season.

“Worst case, we’re looking at a team that’s maybe 3-9 with wins against Eastern Illinois, Central and Purdue,” Bellaire began.

“I was also charitable went 4-8 here,” Staples interjected. “I can accept 3-9 on that. It is a very tough schedule. But that’s the thing, the games that you think are the most winnable happen to be on the road. Like in the conference other than Purdue coming to you, which that’s the one you’d want to have on the road.”