Why winning, culture around Brian Ferentz could hurt Iowa's future amid Big Ten reshuffle

The Race to 325 truly is on in Iowa City. If offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz does not reach the point total, there could be some changes made in the offseason. Iowa has dealt with a lackluster offense for plenty of years and 2023 might be the final straw.

But Ferentz is not getting any help when it comes to the health of his team. Plenty of key contributors have gone down injured, with starting quarterback Cade McNamara being the latest.

“They just got to get to 26.75 per game the rest of the way to get to the 325 mark,” Tom Kakert of On3’s Hawkeye Report said during Tuesday’s episode of Andy Staples On3. “You’re missing Cade McNamara now as your starting quarterback. You’re missing Luke Lachey, your No. 1 tight end who was the leading receiver for the Iowa Hawkeyes before he went down with a broken ankle. So, maybe your two most important offensive players are out.

“Kaleb Johnson, Jaziun Patterson — their top two running backs — have been out… Iowa doesn’t have a lot of offense to begin with and they were down to their second-string quarterback, minus their best tight end, and (down to) their fourth-string quarterback.”

Through five games, 111 points have been scored by Iowa — not all of them necessarily by the offense. If the number is going to be achieved, Kakert points out that nearly 27 points will need to be scored a week moving forward whether or not the team is fully healthy.

If Ferentz does not hit 325, he does not necessarily have to be fired. There might be a new athletic director in charge but in reality, they could bring the offensive coordinator back, no matter the point total come the end of the season.

“They’re going to honor whatever it is,” Kakert said. “But the contract doesn’t say that he is fired. It’s just they could conceivably drop a new contract. All that contract was really in place for was — if they meet those things, he gets a two-year deal, some money back, a bonus.

“They could come back and say ‘We’re going to bring you back on a one-year deal and here’s the number. You can take that or leave it.’ And go from there.”

Why would Iowa make change when they have consistently won?

Something other than a contract might have to force Iowa to make a move.

Sure, the offense has been bad for Iowa for quite some time. Even so, the wins have continued to roll in under head coach Kirk Ferentz. The last losing season came in 2012 with a 4-8 record. Since then, win totals have ranged from six (2020 COVID-19 season) to 12 and a near CFP appearance.

Two Big Ten West titles are sprinkled in there as well.

So why would Iowa make any kind of switch? Wins are wins. Nothing is more important when running a college football program. Plenty of athletic directors have decided to move off coaches known for being able to get wins without reaching the next level.

Results are not always positive.

“There is no incentive to change if you keep winning,” Kakert said. “Every coach will tell you — ‘What would you rather have? A pretty offense that scores a lot of points and puts up a lot of yards? Or a team that wins?’ You take the wins because wins get you contract extensions, big contracts, everything else.”

Big Ten adding West Coast schools could force a change

Iowa is not the only Big Ten West team to play their style of football. You usually think about great defense with a ground attack and average quarterback play in the division. Few have been more consistent at it than Iowa, though.

But the Big Ten West is on its last limbs. By the kickoff of the 2024 season, divisions will be no longer. Adding Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington means Big Ten scheduling will be the… Wild West. No true structure will be there and Iowa’s schedule will look completely different on a yearly basis.

High-powered offenses are on the way and going to be more frequent against the Hawkeyes. And if some kind of coaching change is not made, the program is not going to be able to keep up in the new-look Big Ten.

The wins — which could be why Iowa refuses to adapt — could soon go away.

“You can’t just keep playing this way,” Kakert said. “The Big Ten is going to change. You have this Big Ten West, which is like the Island of Misfit Toys in a lot of ways. These teams all kind of play a similar style or they’re not all that good. There is no powerhouse in the Big Ten West. So, you can get by playing this way.

“Next year, when there are no divisions in the Big Ten, you have to be able to do something different. Look at what Washington is doing. Look at what Oregon is doing. USC is going to have a good offense with Lincoln Riley. You know Chip Kelly is going to have a good offense. You’re bringing four more schools in that can score 30, 40 points on you and you can’t expect to play these rock fights every week and keep them in check. It’s just not going to work.”

For reference, just seven times in the Ferentz era has Iowa averaged over 30 points per game. Twice have resulted in a top 25 scoring offense in the country — coming in 2001 and 2002. So, yeah. It’s been a long time.

USC has the top-scoring offense in the country at the moment, coming in at 53.6 points per game. Oregon is a slot behind at 51.6. Then you have to go all the way down the No. 4 to find Washington at 46.0 PPG.

Add in what Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State are hoping to do and the offensive firepower is coming to the Big Ten. Keeping Ferentz around — possibly either of them — will have Iowa lagging severely behind the pace.