ESPN’s Iowa projections use FPI rankings to predict every game

Iowa football is projected to finish 7.6-4.6 this season, according to ESPN’s FPI rankings. The Hawkeyes enter the season ranked No. 23 in the country but project to finish No. 38 this season. Iowa has a 5.2% chance of winning the Big Ten but a 0.0% chance of going undefeated.

The Hawkeyes are coming off a 6-2 season that started with two losses and ended on a six-game win streak. Iowa returns 14 starters and faces the No. 45 strength of schedule. ESPN’s Iowa projections show them as contenders in the Big Ten’s West division.

Here is a look at Iowa’s chances in every game this season:

Indiana

Iowa has a 61.1% chance to beat Indiana in the season opener. The Hawkeyes start the season with a top 30 conference showdown and are early favorites.

at Iowa State

The Hawkeyes have just a 25.1% chance of winning against Iowa State. This in-state rivalry against the No. 9 team in the FPI rankings is Iowa’s toughest game.

Kent State

Iowa has a 93.3% chance against Kent State. The Hawkeyes face the No. 108 team in the country at home with a high chance of winning.

Colorado State

The Hawkeyes have a 93.2% chance of winning against Colorado State. Iowa closes non-conference play with another sub-100 team at home.

at Maryland

Iowa has a 64.0% chance to beat Maryland on the road. The first conference road game lists Iowa as favorites.

Penn State

The Hawkeyes have a 49.1% chance of beating Penn State. This is the tightest game on the schedule at home against the No. 13 team in the FPI rankings.

Purdue

Iowa has a 69.5% chance to win against Purdue. The Hawkeyes look to build momentum heading into the bye week.

at Wisconsin

The Hawkeyes have a 39.8% chance on the road against Wisconsin. This is the first of two consecutive games that will determine Iowa’s fate in the Big Ten West.

at Northwestern

Iowa has a 47.6% chance of beating Northwestern on the road. The Hawkeyes play their other top competitor in the Big Ten West in a tight contest.

Minnesota

The Hawkeyes have a 73.9% chance to beat Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are looking to get back into the picture after a down year in the division.

Illinois

Iowa has an 85.6% chance against Illinois. The Hawkeyes face their easiest matchup in the Big Ten at home this season.

at Nebraska

The Hawkeyes have a 57.6% chance to win against Nebraska. Iowa goes on the road for the final conference game of the regular season.

Conclusion:

ESPN’s Iowa projections show a wide range of possible outcomes this season. Iowa faces its top competitors in consecutive weeks. Compounding the challenge is that they play both games on the road. The Hawkeyes will likely have to steal at least one of those to have a chance at making the conference championship game, but the absence of Ohio State and Michigan helps balance the schedule.