Iowa Hawkeyes Football: Phil Steele 2025 Forecast

After an 8-5 season in 2024, Iowa is back and ready to make some noise in 2025. College football analyst Phil Steele believes the Hawkeyes can compete for it all inside the Big Ten this season.

As part of his 2025 College Football Preview, Steele analyzed each and every aspect of Iowa heading into a new season. The Hawkeyes have a bit of a new look, but Kirk Ferentz is still leading the charge as their head coach.

It’ll be the 70-year-old’s 27th season at the helm. Will it be a fruitful one? Steele is convinced, but it’ll be up to the Hawkeyes to get the job done on the gridiron.

Phil Steele on Iowa’s Offense

First, Steele is thinking new quarterback Mark Gronowski will have a major impact on Iowa’s offense. That could propel the Hawkeyes to a new level on a side of the football they’ve struggled at in the past.

“In 2023, they only put up 235 yards per game and 15.4 points per game. They were shut out by all three ranked teams (they played), the first time they had three shutouts in a season since 1972,” Steele wrote. “New offensive coordinator Tim Lester has ten returning starters and their best offensive line in years to work with. My computer called for a jump of 100 ypg to 324.3, and they hit that on the head with 329 ypg and 27.7 ppg (last season)!

“They now have a veteran quarterback from South Dakota State that has won national titles, an even stronger offensive and an improved wide receiver corps. They do need to replace running back Kaleb Johnson, but they have a running back room that goes six deep. The offense takes another step forward this year.”

Iowa’s Defense

On the other hand, Iowa’s defense is their calling card. While last season wasn’t the best for the Hawkeyes on that side of the football, Steele is a believer in defensive coordinator Phil Parker, going as far as naming him the top assistant in the country on that side.

“lowa had ranked in the top 20 of scoring defense for ten straight years, and since 2009 they have more interceptions (250, 34 pick-sixes) than any other team. In 2023, my computer called for 14.2 points per game and 262 yards per game and they hit those on the head, with 14.8 ppg and 283 ypg. Phil Parker is the best defensive coordinator in the country, winning the Broyles Award,” Steele added.

“Last year, they had ten starters back and my computer called for 14.5 ppg, but they gave up more big plays than usual and 17.1 ppg in the regular season. Despite losing some key players, I expect Parker to have them back to normal (dominating) in 2025.”

Steele’s 2025 forecast for Iowa

All in all, Steele is expecting big things from Iowa in 2025. Despite a tough schedule, the college football analyst has the Hawkeyes competing at the top of their conference this season.

“In 2020, Iowa was only two plays away from an unbeaten year. In 2021, Iowa got to 6-0 and No. 2 in the AP Poll, their highest since 1985. They were 10-2 before losing two postseason games, one being a tough bowl loss,” Steele wrote. “Iowa still finished ranked for a fourth straight year. In 2022, the Hawkeyes made my going down box in three categories due to being +12 in turnovers, having 4 net-close wins. Despite their 6-2 Big Ten record, were -24 ypg. Iowa drew both Ohio State and Michigan out of the East. They had an injury-depleted team but beat Kentucky 21-0 in the bowl to finish 8-5.

“In 2023, I said a double-digit win season was very possible, and they were my No. 7 surprise team. They suffered a tough loss to Minnesota when a punt-return touchdown was overturned. At 10-2, they won the West but lost to Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game and the bowl, being outscored 61-0 the last two games.

“Last year, the Vegas Win total was 7.5 and the over was one of my favorite plays. They avoided Michigan, Oregon and Penn State, but did have five Big Ten road games. Iowa blew double-digit second half leads against Iowa St and in the bowl, finishing just 8-5 with upset losses to Michigan State and UCLA. Iowa has now had 12-straight winning seasons. Iowa was -27 ypg in Big Ten play and +12 in turnovers, both going down boxes.

“This year’s Big Ten foes were 47-34 last year (second-toughest win percentage). They do host Indiana, Oregon and Penn State and have five Big Ten home games. Win those, and they are a contender. Lose those, and they have USC, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Rutgers on the road. Coach Ferentz will have the Hawkeyes near the top as usual.”