Predicting ceiling, floor for Iowa State in 2024 season

Iowa State is entering its ninth season of head coach Matt Campbell, hoping to make a splash in a new era of Big 12 football. With Texas and Oklahoma heading over to the SEC, there appears to be a wide-open race to win the conference for the first time in a long time.

Following spring ball, Ari Tempkin and On3’s Andy Staples looked at the potential ceiling and floor for Iowa State in 2024. Both are high on where the Cyclones could wind up come December, potentially finding themselves in Arlington for the Big 12 Championship.

On the low end, a bowl game should be attainable for a second consecutive season, making it seven total under Campbell. The duo broke down the full scenarios during Monday’s episode of Andy Staples On3.

Ceiling: Win the Big 12, College Football Playoff

If there is a time to invest in Iowa State, Tempkin wants to when expectations surrounding the program are low. Fresh off a third consecutive season of 7-5 or worse, not many expect the Cyclones to be at the forefront of the new-look Big 12.

A lot of returning offensive pieces bring intrigue, though. Quarterback Rocco Becht got more comfortable in the system as the year went on, something Iowa State can hang their hats on.

“This is a year to pick Iowa State because Iowa State tends to be a better team when the expectations are much lower,” Tempkin said. “… I have a very high ceiling for Iowa State. They bring back everybody on offense with the exception of their tight end, Eason Dean.”

The defensive side is where Iowa State will make their money, though. Tempkin has a ton of faith in defensive coordinator Jon Heacock and his personnel, believing it could be one of his best units ever.

“Oh by the way, they’re as good defensively as they’ve been,” Tempkin said. “Jon Heacock is still there as the defensive coordinator. He’s one of the most brilliant defensive minds in college football.”

Getting into the College Football Playoff seems like a tall task but the Big 12 getting an automatic qualifier would put Iowa State in there — even if a few losses are on the record.

Floor: 7-5

Neither Staples nor Tempkin see a world where Iowa State misses a bowl game. Even with a tough end to the schedule, the reason why the floor is so high should be good enough to keep the Cyclones afloat if needed.

“I think that final stretch is going to be tough,” Tempkin said. “I don’t see any way this team is not a six, seven-win team. I just don’t see it.”

Staples then went on to defend Campbell after maybe facing criticism the past few seasons. Campbell is another reason why Iowa State will have a high floor in 2024 as they have consistently performed well with the head coach in Ames.

“He’s still good,” Staples said. “You don’t win at Iowa State as consistently as he has if you’re not a very good coach… Matt Campbell vs. Iowa State historically, it’s not even close. It’s a complete blowout. Matt Campbell has done an incredible job there.”