Predicting the ceiling, floor for Kansas State in 2024

Kansas State is in the half of the league that has maintained a spot in the Big 12. Now, with their conference realigned, they could now be a team that makes some noise nationally – even as early as this upcoming season.

On3’s Andy Staples and Ari Temkin of Big 12 Radio discussed every team in the Big 12 on Monday, including K-State. It was a program that Staples was excited to discuss considering his approval of their new quarterback in Avery Johnson, a sophomore and former in-state prospect from Maize just two hours south of Manhattan.

“Let me crank up the bandwagon here,” Staples prefaced. “Ari, you know this. I’ve been driving the Avery Johnson bandwagon for a long time at this point. I am extremely excited about Avery Johnson taking over as the quarterback for the Kansas State Wildcats. I think he can be magnificent if his ceiling is what we think it is.”

“This is a team that should win the Big 12 if all goes well for them. This is a team that should make the playoff is all goes well for them,” stated Staples. “The question is is he the guy? Is he what I think he is or am I just projecting too much?”

Temkin thinks Johnson is that good too considering how the quarterback position has since played out this offseason for the Wildcats. They let a four-year player with 27 starts walk, which landed him at a powerhouse program in the portal, in favor of letting Johnson eventually take over as QB1.

“K-State allowed the worse quarterback to walk who could then become the starting quarterback at Ohio State. Think about that. We just talked about how crazy it is in a world that the floor for Kansas Football is six wins? How about a world in which the second quarterback at K-State transfers to Ohio State – not the better one, the second one!” said Temkin. “Like, there is a level of credibility here with Chris Klieman, aside from the COVID year, that this guy has been a winner at K-State at this level. There should be no questions marks about his ability. When he’s evaluating his players and his evaluation is that Avery Johnson is a better player with a higher ceiling? Like, I’m forced to believe him that losing Will Howard was the right move here. He is that good.

Temkin also likes Johnson becoming the new starter since they also hired a new offensive coordinator in Conor Riley. Under him and Klieman, they’ll now try to fully unlock the dual-threat ability that their next quarterback has as his skillset.

“Most of the teams in the Big 12 have a brand new offensive coordinator. Kansas State is no different,” said Temkin. “The thing that surprised me when I talked to Chris Klieman this offseason was that they wanted to design an offense that had a lot more opportunities to throw the ball down the field, which is, like, interesting because Will Howard was pretty good at that. He has got a big arm, big body. Like, he would stand in the pocket, deliver the ball down the field. Then we saw Avery Johnson get involved with his legs. So it’s interesting to kind of be like, ‘Yeah, we wanted to bring in an offensive coordinator that would help design offense that could leverage his arm’. That is a scary proposition to me.”

Ceiling: Make and wins games in the College Football Playoff

Both Staples and Temkin believe that Kansas State could find themselves in the playoff. They also think that the Wildcats could win a few matchups in the field after earning their berth, whether as the champion from the Big 12 or as an at-large.

“My ceiling for them is not just win the Big 12 and make the playoff. It is advance in the playoff if they get there,” said Staples. “I think, if all goes well, if Avery Johnson is as good as we think he might be, that’s the ceiling.”

“I think you’re 100% right. This is a team that can not only get to the playoff but can advance,” Temkin agreed.

Floor: 9-3 or 8-4

As for K-State’s floor, Staples and Temkin still have it around eight or nine wins. That’s among the best, if not the top, floors in the conference considering that would still have them in some playoff considerations.

“I think the floor for this team is 8-4, maybe 9-3,” Staples said. “Their floor is super high. It’s probably the highest floor in the confernece

“I think their floor is very high. I mean eight, nine wins,” said Temkin.

Kleiman is 39-24 overall over five seasons as head coach, including eight or more wins in all but one season while winning 10 and nine respectively during the last two. With that track record, all that remains is whether or not the Wildcats can get to that next level with Johnson being their potential hope of doing so starting this fall.

“Again, there’s a credibility factor here with Chris Klieman. Like, it’s funny, Andy. Like, look at this program. What else do they have to do? When you go back and look at Bill Snyder – the decades that he had and the success that they had. Then handing it over to Chris Kleiman? You talk about sustained excellence and success. Like, what do they have to do to get named with some of the other top programs in the country? As hard for me as that is to say as a Kansas alum, it’s ridiculous how much winning they’ve done over the last two decades.

“I think they should be very excited. The expectations should be rightfully high. You had a five-star in your own backyard, you kept him. Now is the time to make all that turn into championships. We’ll see if they can do it.