ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Kentucky in 2023

Fall is here. ESPN just released their game-by-game predictions for each team in the NCAA via their Football Power Index, including Kentucky. Additionally, ESPN dropped their predictions for teams’ overall records.

Kentucky’s overall record was a bit below expectations last season. In 2022, UK posted a 7-5 record despite boasting standout QB Will Levis and the No. 12 defense in the nation. However, with a revitalized roster, fans hold high hopes for the 2023 campaign.

The ‘Cats added NC State transfer Devin Leary this offseason to replace Levis. Leary will have no shortage of targets. Sophomore wide receivers Barion Brown and Dane Key are expected to take massive leaps this season. The pair combined for 1,147 receiving yards in 2022.

More important than any player, Kentucky returned offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Under Coen in 2021, UK ranked fifth in scoring offense in the SEC with 32.3 points per game. Amid the improvement, ESPN still isn’t convinced. Look below to see if you agree with their predictions for Kentucky’s season.

Sept. 2: Kentucky vs Ball State — 91.3% chance of win

ESPN is confident the ‘Cats will kick 2023 off with a bang, and understandably so. Kentucky last lost its season opener in 2020, falling 29-13 against Auburn. With all due respect, Ball State is no Auburn.

Ball State lost four of its final five games to close out the 2022 season. ESPN expects the Cardinals to pick up where they left off. While it will be competitive, this contest should serve as a speed ramp for the ‘Cats to find their rhythm while looking ahead.

Sept. 9: Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky — 98.5% chance of win

Kentucky’s schedule doesn’t grow more difficult right away. Nonetheless, an in-state contest will give the ‘Cats a little extra pressure. The teams last faced off in 2017. Kentucky defeated the Colonels 27-16.

Rest assured, Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops will look to secure a more comfortable victory this time around. Of course, EKU won’t go down easy. The team boasts one of the best QBs in the FCS in Parker McKinney. The contest should be an excellent test to evaluate where UK’s secondary stands.

Sept. 16: Kentucky vs Akron — 95.8% chance of win

Stoops isn’t pushing his team too early. Once again, Akron shouldn’t present Kentucky with any problems. However, this will be a vital week for the ‘Cats. After a grueling offseason and two games to improve, Kentucky should begin taking form in Week 3.

On the flip side, Akron will be hungry to shake the ‘Cats. The Zips have just five wins in the last six seasons against FBS programs. Akron’s veteran head coach Joe Moorhead enters his second year at the helm. Kentucky can’t overlook the Zips.

Sept. 23: Kentucky at Vanderbilt — 74.4% chance of win

Just like that, things get interesting. Yet, ESPN is still confident in Kentucky. In fairness, UK boasts one of Vanderbilt’s best pieces from last season. Running back Ray Davis jumped ship from the Commodores and joined the ‘Cats this offseason.

In 2022, Davis recorded 232 carries for 1,042 yards and five touchdowns in 12 games. Don’t be surprised when Davis’ legs churn a little harder against his former squad. Davis won’t be the only one with a chip on his shoulder. Vanderbilt stunned Kentucky last season, defeating the ‘Cats for the first time since 2015. UK will be looking for revenge.

Sept. 30: Kentucky vs Florida — 51.3% chance of win

There are few things Kentucky enjoys more than beating Florida. UK went 31 years without a win over the Gators until Stoops boosted his team to victory in 2018. Since then, the programs have gone 2-2 against one another, with Kentucky most recently defeating UF 26-16 last season.

Entering his second season at the head of the program, Florida head coach Billy Napier will look to even the score against Stoops. ESPN seems to believe the game comes down to a coin toss. Yet, if Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz can’t handle UK’s secondary, the ‘Cats should come out on top.

Oct. 7: Kentucky at Georgia — 9.7% chance of win

So, you’re telling me there’s a chance. With back-to-back national championships under their belt, the Bulldogs will have the odds in their favor against every foe on their schedule. Nonetheless, Stoops has shown his teams can hang with UGA.

Last season, Kentucky entered the fourth quarter down 16-0 against Georgia. The ‘Cats surged forward to cut UGA’s lead to 16-6. The ‘Cats could have brought the game within a single score, but UK kicker Matt Ruffalo shanked a 38-yard field goal. Once again, UK will fight an uphill battle, but a win isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Oct. 14: Kentucky vs Missouri — 65.9% chance of win

If Kentucky does fall in Georgia, it should rebound against Missouri. However, Mizzou has admittedly forced Kentucky to sweat the past two seasons, losing both games by a single score. The Tigers’ defense is largely responsible.

Mizzou held opponents to 25.2 points per outing last season, ranking toward the top of the SEC. The team returns 80% of its stellar defense. In other words, expect rough sledding. This one could easily turn into a war of attrition on a chilly October night.

Oct. 28: Kentucky vs Tennessee — 46.9% chance of win

Kentucky’s matchup against Tennessee will be anything but a defensive battle. Tennessee boasted the best offense in the country last season, averaging 525.5 yards per game. The Cats experienced UT’s artillery first-hand in a 44-6 blowout.

Despite the lopsided showing last year, ESPN hasn’t lost faith in Kentucky. Leary must have a standout performance in this one. Tennesee’s passing defense was among the worst in the country last season. Look for Leary to have a breakout performance against the Volunteers.

Nov. 4: Kentucky at Mississippi State — 49.3% chance of win

This prediction will shock Kentucky fans, but it shouldn’t. The programs have gone 4-4 in their last eight contests. Kentucky most recently defeated the Bulldogs 27-17 last year. Nevertheless, Mississippi State is under new management.

First-year head coach Zach Arnett will aim to kick off his relationship right with the Wildcats. Yet, the Bulldogs’ offense could be messy, transitioning from its typical air-raid style. Kentucky’s defensive line must put pressure on the Bulldogs before they can settle into the contest.

Nov. 11: Kentucky vs Alabama — 15.8% chance of win

Georgia and Alabama in one season isn’t ideal for any team. Kentucky doesn’t have a choice. History isn’t on the Wildcats’ side. UK hasn’t defeated Alabama since 1997, and is yet to topple the Crimson Tide during the Nick Saban era.

The two programs last faced in 2020 when Alabama gave Stoops the worst beating of his career, stomping the ‘Cats 63-3. Nonetheless, Alabama seems to be on the decline while Kentucky climbs higher. If UK is lucky, this could be the year the program squeezes out a statement win.

Nov. 18: Kentucky at South Carolina — 53.8% chance of win

South Carolina used Kentucky as a sparkplug last season, rattling off wins against Texas A&M, Tennessee and Clemson in the back half of the season. Experts expect the Gamecocks to be even better this season with QB1 Spencer Rattler returning.

ESPN still isn’t convinced SC will take down UK. Their hesitation likely falls on the fact the Gamecocks return just four starters. With one of the best receiving corps in the SEC, Kentucky could light up South Carolina’s secondary if they’re not careful.

Nov. 25: Kentucky at Louisville — 57.2% chance of win

Every season, experts expect this game to be a toss-up. Every season, Kentucky dominates. This has been the harsh reality for the Cardinals since 2018. However, Kentucky isn’t facing the same Louisville this season as in years past.

Jeff Brohm took over the program this offseason, and he brings a reputation of upsets with him. While at Purdue, Brohm stunned Ohio State, Michigan State and many others. If the ‘Cats sleepwalk into the final game of the season, they could be another name on Brohm’s hit list.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Kentucky — 7.1-4.9

Despite Kentucky’s offseason additions, ESPN doesn’t see Kentucky improving its record from last season. Nevertheless, the ‘Cats won’t go down without a fight.

UK has reached the 10-win mark just twice since Stoops took over the program in 2013. The ‘Cats are yet to post an 11-win campaign under Stoops. If the ‘Cats want to be a team competing for a spot in the upcoming 12-team College Football Playoff, they must reach these lofty goals despite any ESPN predictions.