ESPN predicts Kentucky football games with FPI rankings

Kentucky football is projected to finish 7.2-4.8 this season, according to ESPN’s FPI rankings. The Wildcats rank No. 40 in the country and project to finish No. 46 this season. Kentucky’s ESPN projection gives just a 0.5% chance to win the top-heavy SEC and a 0.0% chance of going undefeated.

The Wildcats have been one of the most consistent teams in the SEC over the past five years and look to continue that with another bowl season berth. Kentucky faces the No. 50 strength of schedule this season, despite playing four top 25 teams. As the favorite in seven games, Kentucky will feel good about its postseason chances.

Here is a look at Kentucky’s chances in every game this season:

UL Monroe

Kentucky has a 96.6% chance of beating UL Monroe. The Wildcats are heavy favorites in the season opener against the No. 124 team in the country.

Missouri

The Wildcats have a 63.0% chance against Missouri. Kentucky has a slight edge over their first SEC East opponent to open conference play.

Chattanooga

Kentucky has a 98.4% chance to beat Chattanooga. The Wildcats face their second easiest matchup of the season against an FCS team.

at South Carolina

The Wildcats have a 57.5% chance to beat South Carolina on the road. Kentucky again has a slight edge over an SEC opponent early in the season.

Florida

Kentucky has a 32.5% chance of winning at home against Florida. The Wildcats enter as underdogs for the first time against the No. 11 team in the FPI rankings.

LSU

The Wildcats have a 43.9% chance of beating LSU. Kentucky faces its second top 25 team in a row.

at Georgia

Kentucky has just a 12.2% chance against Georgia on the road. This matchup against the No. 5 team in the FPI rankings brings the Wildcats to three straight games against the top 25.

at Mississippi State

The Wildcats have a 37.0% chance against Mississippi State in the second straight road game. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 24 in the country, capping off a run of four straight games against top 25 teams.

Tennessee

Kentucky has a 58.6% chance of beating Tennessee. After a bye week, Kentucky becomes favorites for the first time in six weeks.

at Vanderbilt

The Wildcats have a 79.0% chance of winning against Vanderbilt. The Commodores are Kentucky’s easiest SEC opponent on the schedule, despite playing on the road.

New Mexico State

Kentucky has a 98.9% chance to beat New Mexico State. The Wildcats face their easiest game of the season and their fourth team ranked outside the top 100.

at Louisville

The Wildcats have a 42.4% chance of winning against Louisville. Kentucky enters as slight underdogs in this in-state rivalry.

Conclusion:

Kentucky is the favorite in seven games this year, despite a month-long gauntlet of top 25 teams in the middle of the season. Mark Stoops has consistently overachieved at Kentucky. With this tough conference slate in front of them, another bowl berth would be a success.