Kentucky Wildcats Football: Phil Steele 2025 Forecast

Phil Steele gave his 2025 forecast for the Kentucky Wildcats this upcoming college football season and the veteran writer expects a bit of improvement from the ‘Cats. The 2025 college football season will be the most important of the Mark Stoops era at Kentucky, as it suffered their worst season since 2013 in 2024 (4-8).

Kentucky stunned No. 6 Ole Miss on the road last season, but lost its other eight game against power-four programs. It heads into this season with a new quarterback, Zach Calzada from Incarnate Word, but returns 14 starters from last year’s team.

“Mark Stoops opened with three losing seasons (1 play away from bowl in both ’14 and ’15) but delivered 8 straight bowls,” Steele wrote. “In 2021 UK finished in sole possession of 2nd place in the SEC East for the first time ever at 10-3. In ’22 Cats fans beat me up all summer for having them #35 in my preseason rankings. UK entered the season ranked (#20) for the first time since 1978 (4-6-1 that yr) and they opened 4-0 and #7 AP, but they went 3-6 and were not among the 40 teams that drew a vote in the final AP poll. In ’23 they opened 5-0 and rose to #20 AP, but lost 5 of their next 6 before upsetting #9 [Louisville] (Stoops was 2-18 vs top 10 teams prior) and finished 7-6 again.”

Steele expects Kentucky to be better on both sides of the ball

Prior to the 2024 season, Kentucky had appeared in a bowl game in eight consecutive seasons with four wins.

“Kentucky has had just two winning seasons in SEC play since 1977 (both under Stoops, both 5-3). The Vegas Over/Under for Kentucky was 6.5 in ’24. UK opened 1-2 with a blowout loss to South Carolina then beat #6 Ole Miss the highest ranked team they beat on road since 1977 (Penn State) to move to 3-2. UK lost their remaining 6 games vs FBS foes (beat 1-10 Murray State) losing the last 5 by 20 PPG. UK is 2-12 in its last 14 SEC home games! They are 7-18 in the SEC since their 2021 Citrus Bowl win.”

“This year they have 14 returning starters but were -100 mpg in SEC play last year. The Vegas Over Under for the Cats is just 4.5 after their 4-8 year. There are plenty of indicators pointing up, like a +3.0 on my Stock Market indicator, they were -7 TO’s and -3 Net upsets. This team figures to be better on both sides of the ball but not enough to make my Most Improved list.”

Kentucky will open the season against Toledo on August 30th. Its first conference game takes place against Ole Miss on September 6.