Mark Stoops breaks down analytics behind gutsy fourth-down call in Kentucky win over Ole Miss

Kentucky saw one of the wildest end-game swings in college football this past weekend, using an unlikely long conversion on fourth down to ultimately skate by Ole Miss and sneak a huge upset win on the road.

Facing fourth-and-7 from his own 20-yard line, coach Mark Stoops dialed up a shot down the field.

“It’s most definitely a feel. I said that afterwards,” Stoops said Wednesday on an SEC teleconference call. “But analytic-wise it was correct, as well. I get my grade back from CAI, and analytically I didn’t care at that moment. I did what I felt was right, but analytically it told me that it was right and not only that it was right but also that it was right to take the shot.”

Championship Analytics is a service used by many coaches to help them make the right decisions by the metrics. But there’s more to calling plays than simply relying on the analytics.

Stoops had to get it exactly right.

Kentucky lined up to play and quarterback Brock Vandagriff dropped to pass. He didn’t look for a short option just past the sticks, instead firing a deep shot to Barion Brown down the left sideline.

It connected for 63 yards.

Two plays later, Kentucky was in the end zone, ahead 20-17. Stoops’ decision paid off.

He explained why even the alternate outcome of the decision — Ole Miss stuffing Kentucky short and taking over basically in the red zone — would still have been the correct call by the book.

“My thinking was, and I said it right after the game, was if we did not get the first down there we could hold them to a field goal and not get bled out the clock,” Stoops explained. “We still needed a touchdown anyway, we were down four. That’s the biggest difference between this game and the Georgia game. In the Georgia game a field goal helps us win this. In this game a field goal did nothing for us, so we needed a touchdown anyway. So if you’re down four or you’re down seven you need a touchdown, the difference is you’re going to overtime. Does that make sense?”

Not only did it make sense, but it happened to work out in Kentucky’s favor. Rather than falling to 2-3 with an 0-3 mark in SEC play, the Wildcats pulled one out and are looking at a very different 3-2 record.

With momentum to spare.