Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Kentucky in 2024

Kentucky has a very interesting ceiling and floor this coming season, according to On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire.

The ceiling and floor are close together, but that’s a good and bad thing for Kentucky. The expectations are higher, but also realistic.

Staples summed it up perfectly regarding the additions for Kentucky during his show Wednesday.

“Kentucky is gonna be a pretty good team this year,” Staples said. “You got Brock Vandagriff, transfer from Georgia, starting quarterback. They got Gerald Mincey, transfer from Tennessee, starting tackle. They got Jamon Dumas-Johnson, transfer from Georgia, starting linebacker.

“Here’s the thing. They’re going to lose to those teams. That’s the problem. They’re gonna beat the teams they’re supposed to beat, probably, but they’re not quite good enough to beat those other ones.”

Ceiling: 9-3 regular season

Can the Wildcats have a lot of success this season? Sure they can. But Kentucky has a brutal scheduled in the SEC.

And again, the team will surprise you good or bad.

“The ceiling of this team is 9-3,” Staples said. “When Mark Stoops was hired, the idea of a Kentucky team going 9-3, that’s amazing. Absolutely. But now Mark Stoops gets paid as much as the best coaches in the SEC … He’s paid as well as Lane Kiffin. He was (pursued) by Texas A&M, their regents revolted. He ends up staying in Kentucky. 

“But this is the blessing and the curse of Mark Stoops. Your floor is so much higher than it’s ever been. But he has not raised your ceiling as much as say, Eli Drinkwitz has raised. Missouri’s or Kiffin has raised Ole Miss’.”

Floor: Go 6-6 in the regular season

Bellaire doesn’t have high expectations of Kentucky, but it’s at least a team that’s going to be competitive. How many wins does that exactly translate to though?

“Like I think there’s a world in which this team can pretty comfortably lose five games this year,” Bellaire said. “And I say comfortably lose in the sense where you look at the matchup and you’re like, well, they weren’t supposed to win that one. I think there’s five games on the schedule where you say that This team could go .500 Andy, I think that’s very realistic.”

Staples added that a .500 record was right on the nose for Kentucky’s floor.

“It’s my floor. Now, here’s the thing,” Staples said. “When Mark Soopers was hired, the idea of 6-6 being the floor for Kentucky was tremendous. Like that’s what we’re hiring you for. That’s the whole point of this thing.”