Breaking down LSU’s chances to reach College Football Playoff in 2024
As we head into the summer portion of college football’s offseason, major betting sites have already revealed their odds of making this season’s College Football Playoff 12-team field. The LSU Tigers are one of the top teams in the SEC and are looking to nab one of those 12 spots.
Recently, on the On3 Andy Staples Podcast, the college football expert brought on Billy Embody of the Bengal Tiger to discuss the Tigers’ outlook in 2024. While there are many things to like about LSU, some question marks still need to be answered; as such, they head into the summer with a proverbial coin flip on their odds to make the College Football Playoff. And Staples believes that is a fair assessment of the Tigers’ playoff potential in 2024.
“I think that’s about right because I think most programs, when they use the word rebuild, are not thinking along the lines of double-digit wins and division championships,” said Staples. “And LSU has a division championship and two double-digit win seasons during this rebuild. So I am fascinated to see how this winds up because it really bounces the ball one way here or the other.”
Earlier in the conversation, the duo discussed the trajectory of LSU under head coach Brian Kelly. Kelly is entering his third year leading the program and has been reasonably successful despite the feeling that they are in rebuild mode.
“I go back to last year; the Ole Miss game could have been an LSU win very easily,” Staples said. “The Missouri game could have been LSU lost very easily. And so that’s kind of how it’s probably gonna go in this year.”
Embody somewhat agrees with Staples. However, the Bengal Tiger contributor believes LSU’s road to the College Football Playoff could be a lot smoother. All the Tigers have to do is take care of ‘business’ at home and throughout the manageable part of their schedule.
“Yeah, who knows. I mean, USC is a wild card. USC has a new coaching staff,” said Embody. “You’ve got to take care of business and those type of games. But ultimately, let’s say they go through growing pains and they’re figuring out a new defense or Garrett Nussmeier is not playing as well as he can, then you look at the SEC slate, and it’s really not that bad, in my opinion.”
The Trojans overhauled their defensive coaching staff this offseason in hopes of making it competitive. However, those changes and the departure of superstar quarterback Caleb Williams, who went No. 1 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, put USC in nearly an identical position as LSU.
As Embody continued, he tackled the SEC portion of the Tigers’ schedule, starting with arguably one of their easier road opponents, South Carolina.
“At South Carolina, it could be a lot worse,” he continued. “LSU has to capitalize on the games they obviously should win, and then they’ve got to capitalize on their home games — Ole Miss, Alabama, Oklahoma. But then you look at their road games. At Arkansas, a lot of people saying Sam Pittman could be on the way out after this year. At (Texas) A&M, brand new coaching staff who knows. Billy Napier, it’s probably a must-win game in The Swamp for him. And you’ve got Vandy and South Carolina in there. I mean, it’s a manageable schedule for LSU, and that’s where you got to capitalize, and you’ve got to find a way to get to Atlanta.”
With the expansion of the College Football Playoff field and the SEC, LSU has far better odds of making the College Football Playoff than in previous seasons. That, along with one of their the biggest rivals, Alabama, revamping their coaching staff, puts the Tigers in a position to strike in year three under Kelly. However, whether or not LSU capitalizes on this opportunity remains to be seen.