Breaking down the 2024 win total for LSU in new SEC: Did oddsmakers nail it?

LSU‘s expected win total in 2024 is 9.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. After losing the Heisman Trophy winner in Jayden Daniels to the NFL — should oddsmakers believe the Tigers can win 10 games next season? On3’s Andy Staples brought on Bengal Tiger’s Shea Dixon for a deep dive into whether fans should take the over, or the under on LSU’s win total this fall.

“Is it apt going 10-2 and not having to go to Atlanta but having two losses to the No. 1 and 6 teams in the country, whatever it might be,” Dixon told Staples. “Is that a ticket into a 12-team playoff? I think that’s the big debate right now.”

Staples agreed, saying the assumption is that any 10-win SEC team should have a good enough resume to make the final field of 12. At the same time, Staples believes that 10-win seasons are going to be harder to come by once Texas and Oklahoma join their ranks.

“This is an LSU team that went to Oxford [Ole Miss] last year, put up nearly seven 700 yards, put up 49 points and lost. They finished this season 9-3. The margin for error is so small, especially when you throw in kind of outlandish stats like that where you would think that no team would ever score 50 points and put up 700 yards, an LSU team, and lose right? Like, impossible. It happened this past few years.”

The game Dixon is referring to saw the Tigers lead the Rebels 41-34 entering the fourth quarter. LSU’s defense gave up three touchdowns in the final 15 minutes to help Ole Miss send the Tigers back to Baton Rouge with a loss. LSU’s defensive woes were on display all season, which led to head coach Brian Kelly firing his entire defensive staff after the 2023 season.

Losing to Ole Miss while putting up, on paper, winning numbers was the difference in LSU winning 10 games in the regular season instead of finishing with the nine that they did. The Tigers did go on to win their 10th game in the postseason — but whether a situation like that becomes the deciding factor in a 12-team CFP berth remains to be seen.

While the committee has its bases covered with no longer being able to leave out undefeated conference champions, three losses is going to be the new benchmark for teams that are in or out, based on record.