ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for LSU in 2023

After a couple of difficult years that led to a coaching change, LSU is back where they belong as national title contenders and ranked in the preseason top-10 entering Year 2 under Brian Kelly.

Even the ESPN FPI really loves the Tigers this year, and placed them at No. 4 overall entering the season. But another neat feature of the FPI is that it goes through each and every game on the LSU schedule and assigned a win probability.

So below, you can see LSU’s percentage chances of winning each of their 12 contests this year. And then at the end, the FPI produces a record it believes the team will finish near.

Sept. 3: Florida State (Orlando) — 65.9% chance of win

In a rematch of last season’s thriller, FSU and LSU will meet on neutral ground, this time in the state of Florida. Also, these programs return most of their stars off last year and enter the year as consensus top-15 clubs.

FSU is especially loaded. Jordan Travis and Johnny Wilson are as explosive a QB-WR duo as there is in the country, and Trey Benson is a stud at RB who gets to run behind and offensive line with 200+ career starts. Meanwhile, Jared Verse is a likely top-10 pick at EDGE as FSU returns eight other defensive starters and adds a top cornerback transfer in Fentrell Cypress.

Sept. 9: Grambling State (home) — 99% chance of win

The Tigers get their FCS matchup of the year in Week 2 this time around, as the Grambling State Tigers make the short trip to Baton Rouge. This game will actually be Grambling’s season-opener as well.

They’re currently coming off a season where they won just three games and now get a top-10 FBS team to begin their next campaign. Expect an immense gambling line against Grambling in this one.

Sept. 16: Mississippi State (away) — 77.2% chance of win

After the passing of Mike Leach, Mississippi State will look very different in 2023. But Will Rogers is back under center for the Bulldogs as one of the few established returners in the league at QB. Even if the offense is quite a contrast from last year, at least they have some continuity at football’s most important position.

Meanwhile, on defense, the Bulldogs could be sneaky strong. They were a good defense a year ago and get a load of returners back off that unit. Of course, the promotion of defensive coordinator Zach Arnett to head coach should only further emphasize MSU’s new focus on that side of the football.

Sept. 23: Arkansas (home) — 83.7% chance of win

With quarterback KJ Jefferson returning to Fayetteville, Arkansas is looking to take the next step in a crowded SEC. A victory over 2022 division champ LSU would do wonders for the Razorbacks, but ESPN says the chance of that is less than 20%.

Whether Arkansas stays close or not, the QB battle between Jefferson and LSU’s Jayden Daniels could be one of the best in the conference slate all year. Both guys eclipsed 2,500 passing yards and 600 rushing yards a year ago and return as senior leaders and (maybe) Heisman hopefuls.

Sept. 30: Ole Miss (away) — 64.2% chance of win

Lane Kiffin does have a quarterback situation to solve, but also has a roster that should be top-25-ranked regardless of who starts under center. And that’s thanks to a tremendously experienced offensive line, plus a wide receiver corps that blends solid returners with star mid-major transfers.

Defensively, the Rebels get back seven starters but lost the bulk of their top tacklers. The linebackers are sturdy and proven but it’s the additions in the secondary and on the defensive line that provide some unanswered questions ahead of the season. Sans ‘Bama, this is likely the Tigers’ toughest road test.

Oct. 7: Missouri (away) — 78.1% chance of win

Here’s a sneaky trap game. In between bouts with SEC West rivals sits a trip to CoMo for a matchup against a pesky Missouri team that may have given Georgia its best test in SEC play.

The Tigers made huge strides on defense last season and return the bulk of their talent there. Meanwhile, some departures at receiver really hurt but former five-star wideout and rising sophomore Luther Burden is ready to carry the load.

Oct. 14: Auburn (home) — 85.6% chance of win

Auburn will be looking to lay the groundwork for future success under Freeze, and the best way to lend some hope to that would be with a victory over a top-15-ranked LSU squad to give the new coaching staff a win to hang their hats on.

The Tigers did just settle on a starting quarterback in Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne, who beat out last year’s majority starter, Robby Ashford. Thorne started for Michigan State each of the last couple seasons and has 6,500+ career passing yards.

Oct. 21: Army (home) — 97.5% chance of win

Army has a darn good football program. The Black Knights have two seasons of nine wins and one with 11 in the last five seasons. Though, they went just 6-6 a season ago.

However, that team was still good on defense, surrendering just 22.5 points a game. With eight starters back, even better numbers are the expectation. Plus, LSU will get an up-close look at the triple option on the other side of the ball.

Nov. 4: Alabama (away) — 27.1% chance of win

Brian Kelly and company defeated Saban’s team during his first year on the job in an exhilarating, 32-31 overtime victory for the Tigers. Which was a loss that kept Alabama out of the College Football Playoff conversation.

Like the Volunteers, the Tigers will have to get a win over the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa if they’re to win back-to-back games against Alabama. That’s easier said than done, but ESPN believes it’ll be both Alabama and LSU’s toughest test of the season.

Nov. 11: Florida (home) — 78.3% chance of win

Rivalry games can sometimes produce surprises, and you can bet Florida will give LSU its best shot. With that said, though, the Tigers still have a 78% chance to win the game as Florida is still in a reload mode.

Unlike LSU, Florida must replace its starting quarterback from last season as Anthony Richardson is with the Colts and former Wisconsin starter Graham Mertz is in town as QB1. Billy Napier is recruiting well in Gainesville, but the Gators have a brutal schedule, including this cross-divisional contest on the road.

Nov. 18: Georgia State (home) — 96.6% chance of win

The third and final cupcake non-conference matchup of the season comes against the Panthers of Georgia State. After a solid season in 2021, they responded with a poor 4-8 outing to miss a bowl for the first time since 2018.

The good news for GSU is they returned their quarterback for another year. His name is Darren Grainger and he’s the one to know for this matchup, as he comes back as a senior starter who put up nearly 2,500 passing yards while adding north of 900 rushing yards.

Nov. 25: Texas A&M (home) — 77.1% chance of win

The difference between talent and final record was vast in College Station last fall, as the Aggies juxtaposed a No. 1 recruiting class in the ’22 spring with a 5-7 record that season, missing out on a bowl game for the first time since 2008. However, there’s reason for hope.

First of all, the defense was pretty strong a year ago and expectations are that side of the ball will be the strength of the team this year after they allowed just 21 points a game and return 10 starters. Also, QB Conner Weigman is just a sophomore but he got plenty of game experience a year ago and gets back A&M’s top three receivers, including the electric Ainias Smith.

Final Record: 9.4-2.8

Even though LSU is picked to lose just one game by the FPI numbers, the metric predicts roughly a 9-3 or 10-2 record and a very similar finish to last season. That road matchup against Alabama is an immense challenge, but if they can topple the Tide for a second straight year, the Tigers are looking at 11 other games they’ll likely be favored in. A return trip to the SEC Championship game is very much in the cards.