ESPN predicts every game outcome on LSU's 2024 schedule

There is plenty of hype surrounding the LSU football team ahead of the 2024 college football season, even with Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and his top two targets now playing in the NFL.

The Tigers are considered a real threat to make the College Football Playoff this season in Year 3 under Brian Kelly, thanks in part to some major staff changes that happened on the defensive side of the ball this past offseason.

Here’s how ESPN FPI has every LSU game going:

Sept. 1: LSU vs. USC (in Las Vegas) — 54.6% chance of win

This is one of the marquee games of the opening weekend of the college football season. Just like Brian Kelly, Lincoln Riley is also entering Year 3 at his new school and has had up-and-down results his first two seasons.

Also like Kelly, Riley’s USC teams have struggled mightily on the defensive side of the ball. Whichever team can get more stops is likely to get the win. ESPN FPI expects that to be LSU.

Sept. 7: LSU vs. Nicholls — 98.2% chance of win

The home opener for LSU comes in Week 2 when the Tigers host Nicholls at night at Tiger Stadium. It’s no surprise that ESPN doesn’t expect this to be much of a game.

Nicholls is an in-state school that competes at the FCS level. The Colonels finished 6-5 last season, including a blowout loss to TCU. This should be nothing more than an opportunity for LSU to get some young guys experience.

Sept. 14: LSU at South Carolina — 63% chance of win

The first true road test of the season for LSU comes at South Carolina on Sept. 14. Williams-Brice Stadium can be a tough place to play, but the environment should be somewhat tame as it is a Noon kickoff in Columbia.

This will be LSU’s first trip to Columbia since 2008 when the Tigers earned a 24-17 win. ESPN gives the Tigers a 63 percent chance of coming out on top.

Sept. 21: LSU vs. UCLA — 79.8% chance of win

LSU will face its second Big Ten team of the season in Week 4 when UCLA comes to town. The Tigers are expected to have an easier time with the Bruins than with the Trojans.

UCLA has a new-look program after Chip Kelly left and DeShaun Foster took over. Playing at LSU during his first season at UCLA is certainly a tall task for Foster.

Sept. 28: LSU vs. South Alabama — 90.4% chance of win

LSU has one final non-conference tune up to close out September, before the meat of the schedule gets underway. The Tigers will be heavy favorites as South Alabama comes to town.

ESPN gives LSU a 90.4 percent chance of coming away with a win. This should be another opportunity to build some confidence on both sides of the ball against a non-Power 4 team.

Oct. 12: LSU vs. Ole Miss — 62.1% chance of win

Ahead of the 2024 season, this looks like one of the toughest tests of the year for the Tigers. Ole Miss loaded up in the transfer portal and also returns plenty of talent, including star quarterback Jaxson Dart.

Despite that, ESPN has LSU as a pretty sizeable favorite for the matchup, giving the Tigers a 62 percent chance to knock off the preseason No. 6 team in the country. The fact that the game is at Tiger Stadium and at night is probably a big part of the reason why.

Oct. 19: LSU at Arkansas — 65% chance of win

The Tigers are heading back on the road in mid-October and taking on an Arkansas team that is coming off of a disappointing season. The Razorbacks went 4-8 (1-7) in 2023, and there’s some pressure on Sam Pittman as the 2024 season gets underway.

Still, the Tigers have only a 65 percent chance of getting a win, which is about the same odds as for a top-10 Ole Miss squad. You can bet that Arkansas fans will be fired up and ready to help their team try to pull off a shocking win in the rivalry game.

Oct. 26: LSU at Texas A&M — 47.1% chance of win

The toughest road test of the season comes in late October when the Tigers have to travel to College Station. Even though this is Mike Elko’s first year as head coach, expectations are high for the Aggies.

Texas A&M recruited well under Jimbo Fisher, even if the on-field results weren’t great, and Elko is inheriting a roster with plenty of talent. This is the first game that ESPN has the Tigers at less than a 50 percent chance of winning.

Nov. 9: LSU vs. Alabama — 36.7% chance of win

Things don’t get much easier for the Tigers when they return home. Yes, LSU has a bye to regroup, but after that the Alabama Crimson Tide come to town.

Even with Nick Saban gone, expectations are high for Alabama. In fact, ESPN gives Kalen DeBoer’s squad a better than 60 percent chance of winning in Baton Rouge. It will be interesting to see if ESPN is right and if DeBoer can win in Tiger Stadium in his first opportunity.

Nov. 16: LSU at Florida — 53.4% chance of win

Playing in The Swamp won’t be easy, which is likely why the Tigers only have a slightly better than 50 percent chance of winning at Florida, according to ESPN FPI. Everyone seems to be down on the Gators, but that’s due in large part to Florida having one of the toughest schedules in the country.

Florida returns starting quarterback Graham Mertz, and head coach Billy Napier has done an excellent job of recruiting. He would love nothing more than to upset his rival as he tries to get off the hot seat this fall.

Nov. 23: LSU vs. Vanderbilt — 86.2% chance of win

After an incredibly difficult stretch of games, things should get a little easier in late November when Vanderbilt comes to town. The Commodores have been uncompetitive in the SEC for years and are coming off of a 2-10 (0-8) season.

This should give the Tigers an opportunity to regroup and rest up after a difficult stretch of games before one final regular season test. ESPN has this as by far the most likely win as far as SEC games go.

Nov. 30: LSU vs. Oklahoma — 47.6% chance of win

LSU closes out the regular season by welcoming Oklahoma to town in its first season in the SEC. The two teams have only met three times entering the 2024 season, although they are sure to meet much more now that the Sooners are in the SEC.

Both teams are considered contenders to reach the College Football Playoff entering the season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if this game helps decide a playoff spot. What is at least a little bit surprising is that ESPN has LSU as an underdog, despite the game being played at home.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for LSU — 7.9-4.2

ESPN FPI isn’t as high on LSU as some analysts are entering the season. FPI has the Tigers losing four games, which would almost assuredly keep them out of the College Football Playoff.

With a somewhat favorable schedule that doesn’t include Georgia or Texas, finishing 8-4 would be a disappointment for the Tigers. It will be fun to see how the season ultimately plays out.