LSU Recruiting: Expert explains Colin Simmons prediction to Tigers

Decision day is nearly here for Duncanville (Texas) Five-Star Plus+ EDGE Colin Simmons. The No. 5 player in the 2024 cycle, per the On3 Industry Ranking, will announce his decision on Aug. 10 at 3 p.m. ET on the On3 YouTube channel.

It’s still a three-horse race for the No. 1 EDGE and No. 1 player from Texas, as LSU, Miami and Texas are Simmons’ three finalists. The Hurricanes aren’t thought to be nearly as in contention as the Tigers or Longhorns, according to the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine (RPM).

It’s Texas that has the lead at 47.7%, while LSU is close behind at 34.4%. Each program has received six visits, though Texas had its official with Simmons on June 23, while LSU’s OV is currently scheduled for Nov. 11. Simmons was just in Baton Rouge for an unofficial visit at the Bayou Splash on July 28, however.

While Brian Kelly and the Tigers may seem up against the odds by having to face off against the in-state program, The Bengal Tiger recruiting insider Shea Dixon broke down what LSU has done to become a top contender in Simmons’ recruitment with a real chance to land his pledge in an appearance on Monday’s On3’s Inside Scoop recruiting show.

“I think what they’ve done is just been there from the start,” Dixon said. “For him to lock in on an out-of-state team like LSU, I think that’s shown that the interest is sincere from the start and then just look at his actions. Even without taking an official visit, which he has set for November — to LSU — they’re right here in the top two.”

It’s the latest visit to LSU that’s turning heads ahead of Simmons’ decision. Following the Bayou Splash, Dixon and fellow LSU analyst Billy Embody each logged RPM picks for the Tigers to nab the commitment of the coveted EDGE, both of which were originally placed at a 60% confidence level.

Dixon explains RPM pick for Simmons to LSU

One of the main signs for Dixon was the timing of Simmons’ announcement, which came on Aug. 2, right after his time on the Bayou. The Tigers getting the last face-to-face word in could play a factor come Aug. 10.

“Now that he’s set a date, coming off of that LSU visit at the Bayou Splash, I think that’s what has a lot of LSU people saying ‘man, it looks like LSU’s done enough work here to potentially pull this off,'” Dixon explained.

Earlier in June, a pair of RPM picks for Simmons to Texas were logged by InsideTexas recruiting insiders Gerry Hamilton and Eric Nahlin, with the latter later bumping his confidence level all the way up to 80%. Dixon understands why both programs would feel confident heading into the day of the commitment.

“I think this is one that continues to play out every day,” Dixon said. “That’s just the reality of two teams battling, and you see it in the RPM picks … I think it kind of sums up where each school feels like they stand, they feel like they’ve got a slight edge, but they know there’s real competition out there.”

One more, and potentially big reason for Dixon’s RPM pick for the Tigers is Simmons’ teammate, Duncanville four-star running back Caden Durham. The tailback is also announcing his decision on Aug. 10, and will choose between LSU, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.

LSU is the overwhelming RPM favorite for Durham at 95.2%. With only one school in the running for both, Dixon sees it as another positive for the Tigers, even if the pair of blue-chippers aren’t reliant on each other’s decision.

“I would just point back to why I made the pick: Him spending those four days at LSU, then turning around and saying i’m announcing my decision at the same time as a teammate, who a lot of people feel very good about ending up at LSU,” Dixon said. “Doesn’t even have Texas in his final grouping, no they’re not a package deal, but I don’t think it hurts that they’re doing it on the same day.”