Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Maryland in 2024

Maryland football hasn’t been able to eclipse eight wins in a single season under head coach Mike Locksley entering his fourth season as the Terps’ head coach.

Finishing the past two seasons 8-5 and leading Maryland to three-straight postseason victories over that span, however, has some fans excited at what is next for the program in 2024. Given the fact that they avoid both Michigan and Ohio State this season — there may be some wiggle room to squeeze in an extra win or two this season.

The biggest question mark coming into this offseason was who would be replacing Tualia Tagovailova at quarterback. Whether it will be MJ Morris, Billy Edwards or Cam Edge remains to be seen, but whoever it is that takes the fist snap under center this fall will have to step up to the plate in a new-look Big Ten later this season.

While FanDuel Sportsbook lists Maryland’s over/under at 7.5 wins, On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire broke down where they see the Terps’ ceiling and floor during the 2024 college football season.

Ceiling: 9-3

“I’ve got 9-3,” Staples told Bellaire. “We don’t know who’s gonna start, whether it’s Billy Edwards Jr. or MJ Morris. I like MJ Morris a lot. I think there’s a good chance he winds up being the guy because he probably is the more dynamic of the two. But Billy Edwards won them a bowl game. I mean, they dominated Auburn in the bowl game last year.

“They’ve got most of defensive start, or about half their defensive starters back. They were actually pretty salty on defense last year, they were 14th in yards per play allowed in the whole country.”

Staples believes that Maryland will ultimately “be fine,” and with a win in the postseason — the Terps have a shot to win 10 games for the first time since 2003.

Floor: 4-8

“I think the floor for this team is not great,” Bellaire said. “I think it’s somewhere in the four-win [mark]. I think it helps that the schedule is relatively good to them right now. No Ohio State and Michigan is nice. Northwestern at home could be a win, away at Indiana could be a win — but I think the best case scenario for this team is 7-5.

“I think they could go on a tear to start the season, win five of their first six — which will be huge — but that stretch in the final six, I think they’re lucky to get two wins in those final six games. I think ultimately, this is a team fighting for a bowl game.”

Maryland will play UConn, Michigan State, Virginia, Villanova, Indiana and Northwestern in their first six games of the season. If Bellaire’s assumption is correct, the early season will be crucial for Maryland getting back to the postseason in 2024.