ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Miami in 2023

ESPN released its FPI ratings and gave game-by-game predictions for the Miami Hurricanes during the 2023 season.

Mario Cristobal goes into Year 2 of his tenure after a successful time in Eugene, Oregon. But after falling short of the postseason in 2022, time is of the essence in Coral Gables. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke is back and renewed, so it’s a start.

Below are the FPI projections for Miami’s entire 2023 schedule. Will it be a return to the postseason for the Hurricanes?

Sept. 1: Miami vs. Miami (Ohio) – 88.4% chance to win 

A non-conference opponent to open things up should give Miami a win. The Florida one, not the Ohio one. All jokes aside, the Hurricanes are heavily favored here.

Of course, Miami lost to Middle Tennessee last year, so we don’t want to rule anything out. But we’ll choose to believe Mario Cristobal and company learned from their mistakes.

Sept. 9: Miami vs. Texas A&M – 49% chance to win 

The Hurricanes went to College Station last year and came up short in a 17-9 loss, a sloppy one at that. But now, the Aggies have to come to South Florida.

Both teams are expected to be improved this fall, but many are higher on Texas A&M rather than Miami. This would be a beautiful 2-0 start for Cristobal and crew, especially with an SEC win on the schedule.

Sept. 14: Miami vs. Bethune-Cookman – 99% chance to win 

There isn’t much to say about this one other than it’s likely another blowout win for Miami. The Hurricanes dispatched Bethune 70-13 in the opener last year at Hard Rock Stadium.

More of the same? Probably. But it’s essentially a tune up game for Miami on short rest before getting the last non-conference opponent of the season nine days later.

Sept. 23: Miami at Temple – 83.2% chance to win

Another mismatch, on paper at least. Miami should be able to go into Philadelphia and handle the Owls and perhaps be 4-0 through the first third of the season.

At worst, Miami is probably 3-1, based on ESPN’s FPI projections and chances. The Texas A&M game is a near 50-50 shot so 3-1 or 4-0 is to be expected for the Hurricanes.

Oct. 7: Miami vs. Georgia Tech – 81.7% chance to win

Another heavily favored game for Miami. ESPN’s FPI thinks highly of the offseason work done by the Hurricanes to bounce back for a poor first showing under Cristobal.

It just goes to show the expectations surrounding the program despite a down year. Cristobal has the coaching chops to get this team back to the top. But the Hurricanes better show up in the first conference game of the year.

Oct. 14: Miami at North Carolina – 37.8% chance to win

It’ll be quite difficult for Miami to go into Chapel Hill and walk all over the Tar Heels. Drake Maye leads the North Carolina offense so thoughts and prayers to the Miami defense.

On a serious note, the Hurricanes have to be able to contain Maye in order to win this game. UNC might have a shot at the ACC title when it’s all said and done.

Oct. 21: Miami vs. Clemson – 28% chance to win

Now the schedule really beefs up for Miami during the halfway point of the season. ACC favorite Clemson comes to town but expect the Tigers to be on some sort of revenge tour after missing out on the College Football Playoff again.

ESPN’s FPI doesn’t give the Hurricanes much of a chance to upset Dabo Swinney at home. Heck, if this game was at Clemson, that percentage might be cut in half.

Oct. 28: Miami vs. Virginia – 83.4% chance to win 

Here’s a chance to bounce back for Miami after a projected loss to the Tigers. Virginia is rebuilding under head coach Tony Elliott, who enters Year 2.

Miami meanwhile, is looking to bounce back in a hurry. This game would serve well to be a win. A win here could at least get Miami to 5-3 through eight games this coming season.

Nov. 4: Miami at NC State – 45% chance to win

Another tough game against the state of North Carolina. The FPI at least gives the Hurricanes a better shot to take down the Wolfpack, compared to the Tar Heels.

Miami might need to pull off this upset here. Doing so gets Miami bowl eligible at 6-3 through nine games. Then, it can strengthen its postseason positioning. A loss though puts the hurricanes at 5-4 and that’s what ESPN projects at the moment. This is not a bad matchup, it’s just on the road and a difficult game late in the season.

Nov. 11: Miami at Florida State – 28.1% chance to win

Here’s where that 6-3 or 5-4 record could really stand out with three games to play. Good luck going to Tallahassee against projected ACC contender Florida State.

With Jordan Travis under center, he’ll try to pick apart the Hurricanes one by one. Can Tyler Van Dyke keep up with him? We’ll all be tuned in to find out.

Nov. 18: Miami vs. Louisville – 68.1% chance to win

Based on the projections, Miami is 5-5 through 10 games and needs one win in the last two to become bowl eligible. 5-5 is certainly no ideal after a 5-7 campaign when some thought the Hurricanes could be dark horse contenders right away.

But hosting Louisville, however fast Jeff Brohm gets his era going, is favorable per ESPN. Miami should be able to come away with a win here.

Nov. 24: Miami at Boston College – 68.8% chance to win

The same goes for the season finale on the road against Boston College. At a projected 6-5, the Hurricanes are already bowl bound at this point.

So now, get a better ACC affiliated bowl game with another win over the Eagles. The two schools did not play one another last year, so chalk this up as a fresh matchup.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Miami: 7.6-4.4

Is 7-5 or 8-4 remotely acceptable for Miami given the history and expectations for Cristobal? Probably not, but an improvement on last season could be just the boost the Hurricanes need in Year 2.

It’ll give the Hurricanes back to the postseason, but as ESPN’s FPI points out, seven to eight wins is the likely range. It’s Year 2 of Cristobal in South Florida and the team has to make some sort of progress.