Predicting ceiling, floor for Miami Hurricanes in 2024 season

It’s year three for head coach Mario Cristobal with the Miami Hurricanes. Now, in a high-pressure job, there are bigger expectations than ever before for the Hurricanes during Cristobal’s tenure, largely thanks to the team’s strong roster.

With all of that in mind, Andy Staples welcomed Roddy Jones from the ACC Network onto Andy Staples On3. There, the two broke down what they’re expecting from the Hurricanes this season. That, notably, included their expectations for the ceiling and floor for what Miami could accomplish this season.

Together, Staples and Jones agreed that this Miami team is capable of being phenomenal this year, even competing for the ACC Championship and a trip to the College Football Playoff. On the flip side, the floor should be around eight or nine wins for the Hurricanes.

CEILING: College Football Playoff

Andy Staples kicked off the discussion on Miami, explaining that this team is talented enough to make the Playoff and even win in the CFP, assuming the coaching staff figures out in-game management.

“The expectations are through the roof and they should be with this roster,” Staples said. “I have their ceiling as a College Football Playoff team. Probably could go deeper than just making the College Football Playoff. This is a roster that should be able to win games in the College Football Playoff. The question is can they put it together on gameday, on the field? Can they manage the clock? Can they make the decisions necessary to let all that talent do what it’s supposed to do?”

For his part, Roddy Jones agrees that Miami has a chance to be special in 2024. In particular, he praised the way that Mario Cristobal has chosen to build the roster starting in the trenches.

“Andy, I think they can. Obviously, it’s early. So, I reserve all right to change my opinion with this, but I think I’m buying Miami as an ACC Championship Game participant and maybe an ACC Championship Game winner. I just really, really like this roster, and it’s not because of the flash. It’s because it’s been built in the right way. The Mario Cristobal way is building offensive and defensive lines. Inside out, front to back. That is how Mario Cristobal builds his teams. So, when you look at guys like Francis Mauigoa and Rueben Bain, freshmen last year who were freshmen All-Americans, those guys should continue to develop. They’ve had other freshmen throughout that team and then they sprinkle in guys like Francisco Mauigoa the linebacker. when you look at this team, the toughness that Mario Cristobal is trying to instill, I think that that’s going to shine this year,” Jones said.

“Then, by the way, they got Cam Ward. They got Damien Martinez. Damien Martinez pairs with Mark Fletcher at running back. It’s a really good running back unit. Xavier Restrepo at the receiver position should be really good for them. He was incredibly consistent last year for them on an offense that wasn’t consistent. So, I really like this Miami team. The one weakness they have is in the secondary, and I think they’ll be able to piece it together enough.”

With all of that in mind, Roddy Jones shared that he’s incredibly high on this Miami team and thinks that they may not just be competing for the CFP, but an unbeaten regular season as well.

“I think the ceiling for this team is certainly a College Football Playoff appearance,” Jones said. “I think they could get to the semifinals. I really could, if they’re able to come together and get out of their own way. Regular season record, this is a team that could be 12-0. I think 11-1 is certainly a reasonable ceiling for them with that schedule.”

FLOOR: 8-4 or 9-3

If there’s a problem for Mario Cristobal, it’s that when expectations are through the roof, then it’s easy to disappoint. On top of that, this season is coming off two frustrating years.

“I think anything worse than 10-2 is a disappointment,” Staples said, pointing to how high the expectations are this season.

Roddy Jones agreed, pointing out that he feels the floor is just a little bit lower than that line that he and Staples are describing as a disappointment.

“I agree, and I think their floor is 9-3, but I think that’s a disappointment with this schedule, I agree,” Jones said.

Andy Staples added to that, pointing out that in-game management is still a concern to at least some extent. He also added that the first game of the year, against Florida, might be the most important for Miami.

“I had 8-4 as the floor, and that’s everything going wrong. Total mismanagement…That is it. That is it right there. That first game against Florida is an anxiety bowl kind of game. Both fanbases are nervous. Both fanbases are not particularly happy with the first two years from their coaches,” Staples said. “Like, there will be a massive overreaction to whoever loses that game. Miami should win that game, but I’m not prepared to pick Miami yet in that game, for all the reasons we just said.”

Despite how high he is on the Hurricanes, Roddy Jones agreed that the opener could easily go sideways for Miami.

“If I were Miami this year, I would love easing into the schedule and getting Florida week two or week three. Jumping into that pressure cooker as what will likely be a massive favorite on the road in The Swamp. It doesn’t feel warm and fuzzy for me. It just doesn’t,” Jones said. “But with the way Florida, the way their rosters is, they’ve got distractions off the field going on with their head coach getting sued, like you should have advantages at just about every position. I feel not awful about Miami, but it doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies.”

There is certainly room for things to go wrong in the opener. However, as Andy Staples concluded by pointing out, winning that game would also set the Hurricanes on the right track to succeed.

“But if they win that game, massive confidence boost. It gets you going for the rest of the schedule, which is very manageable until you play Florida State. Just keep on rolling until the Seminoles come to play you, and then you figure out what you are. That’s the challenge for Miami. Deal with the stress of that first week and it could set you up or set you back.”