Greg McElroy leans to over 4.5 wins for Michigan State

College football expert Greg McElroy is breaking down the over-under win totals for programs across the nation. And on a recent episode of always college football, the former Alabama quarterback went over the win total line for the Michigan State Spartans. The Spartans are not expected to be contenders in 2023, which is why their win projection is at 4.5. And that is a bet McElroy sees going in favor of the over.

“There at 4.5. Now, if you would’ve asked me at the end of 2021, Michigan State is going to have a 4.5-win total. What are you betting? Over, by a mile,” said McElroy. “Given just how they play. (In) 2021, you had a nine-win improvement; you had a Peach Bowl victory; you had a top ten final ranking; you had all the momentum in the world going for you there in East Lansing. The problem is, in 2022, one of the biggest strengths, pass defense… regressed significantly. And they couldn’t run the football. Not a great place to start.”

In 2021, it appeared as if head coach Mel Tucker had re-established the Spartans as one of the dominant teams of the Big Ten alongside rivals Ohio State and Michigan. Unfortunately, the Spartans had a significant drop-off in 2022, going 5-7 on the season. And because of that, McElroy wonders if maybe Michigan State belongs in the conversation with the Marylands of the Big Ten instead of the Penn States, challenging the Wolverines and Buckeyes for supremacy in the conference.

“Last year, we’re all wondering, are they about to join the likes of Ohio State, of Michigan? Are they about to get to the point where they are on the same page as Penn State? Should we have been? I don’t know because now I feel like people are starting to come in with a group of Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers. Somewhere in the middle is the truth. And I hope for Michigan State Spartan fans, the truth is a whole heck of a lot better than we saw last year.

“Now, they did get a big boost with what they have on the offensive line. They have a lot of experience back, went out, and they got one of the top JUCO players in the country. Probably gonna step right into a starting spot in Keyshawn Blackstock. You also have some incoming freshmen that have a lot of talent. They were highly regarded coming out. So, I do think that there are ways to address some of the issues that the team had last year. But I don’t know if it’s gonna happen overnight.”

Michigan State will have a young team in 2023 with a lot of moving pieces. Last year, they failed to find a suitable replacement for star running back Kenneth Walker III, and it showed as they were only able to manage 113 yards per game on the ground. That ranked outside the top 100 in the FBS in Division I football. So, with that being the case, McElroy believes that there is a path for Michigan State to eclipse the 4.5 line, but it won’t be easy. Of the 12 games Michigan State will play in 2023, McElroy believes they’ll get the four with wins over Central Michigan, Richmond, Rutgers, and Indiana, with a strong chance of beating Nebraska.