JD PicKell: Biggest issues facing Michigan State as star players enter transfer portal

In 2021, Michigan State had an impressive season in Year 2 under Mel Tucker. That led to a monster contract extension as the program looked to build off that success in the future.

The 2022 season wasn’t as kind amid a 5-7 record. Now, the Spartans are facing more adversity after two star players entered the transfer portal. Starting quarterback Payton Thorne and wide receiver Keon Coleman both hit the portal earlier this week, raising eyebrows and Tucker and Co. try to recover from a rough go a season ago. A third starter — cornerback Charles Brantley — also entered the portal, but withdrew Tuesday.

On3’s J.D. PicKell said despite the two huge departures, Michigan State is not “imploding” as a program. However, one big issue could be exposed by their decisions: NIL.

CLICK HERE to subscribe to the On3 YouTube channel today for all of the latest news on college football, recruiting, NIL, more!

“Both guys want to stay at Michigan State,” PicKell said on The Hard Count. “And with Keon Coleman … if you can’t keep him at Michigan State because of NIL issues, this will not be the last time to deal with it because I would venture to say these conversations with Keon Coleman and the value that he is worth, those conversations were probably had before he jumped in the portal. Michigan State — at one point in time, I would imagine, by nature of him being in the portal — wasn’t able to reach the value that he is worth.

“So if this is the reality, like I said, top talent at Michigan State will continue to leave. They will continue to play well, and once they find out they can’t get what they’re worth, they will then leave. And again, for Michigan State, that will hamstring them tremendously into the future.”

Coleman has an On3 NIL Valuation of $163K — up 17% over the last 10 weeks. That puts him at No. 251 in the On3 College Football NIL Rank. Thorne, meanwhile, has an NIL Valuation of $86K.

The On3 NIL Valuation is the industry’s leading index that sets the standard market NIL value for high school and college athletes. The On3 NIL Valuation calculates the optimized NIL opportunity for athletes relative to the overall NIL market and projects out to as long as 12 months into the future.

JD PicKell’s biggest concerns if Payton Thorne, Keon Coleman return to Michigan State

Even though Thorne and Coleman decided to enter the portal, that doesn’t mean they can’t return to Michigan State. They both likely would have their starting roles if the come back, as well. But PicKell voiced concern about what the Spartans would get if they decide to withdraw from the portal.

There could be a few factors in play, and he wondered if a look at the portal landscape would have an impact if they wind up back in East Lansing in 2023.

“The piece that I’m worried about with both these guys is the potential they come back because whenever you jump in the portal, you see your options and you decide to come back, maybe you’re back on the roster physically, but are you ever back mentally at Michigan State?” PicKell said. “Is there a percentage of you that stays in the portal because you see all the options, maybe you take the visits, you talk to the coaches, you visualize yourself other places, it is so difficult to eventually get back to being where you were. And Mel Tucker, I promise you, he would take Keon Coleman and Payton Thorne back today. But if you only get back 75% of them, is that really help your football team?

“Because college football will expose your investment in a heartbeat. I promise you. If you don’t give 100% physically, mentally, emotionally, you will get exposed. That will show on Saturdays. My concern is that these guys would come back to Michigan State and not be the best version of themselves, if I’m a Michigan State fan, at least. We’ll keep an eye on this. They’re both in the portal right now. If you’re a Michigan State fan, you still hope they come back because they’re tremendous talents. But I’m just curious as to what that looks like if they were to come back, both in the locker room and with what kind of version of Payton Thorne and Keon Coleman you get back.

“Michigan State is not imploding. This is not ideal.”