Michigan State 2025 win total: Greg McElroy makes prediction on Spartans' 5.5 wins mark

Oddsmakers set Michigan State‘s win total for the upcoming season at 5.5, according to FanDuel. ESPN’s Greg McElroy recently weighed in on the Spartans’ odds of outperforming expectations in Year 2 of the Jonathan Smith era.

“Here’s your wins: Western Michigan, Youngstown State and UCLA,” McElroy said. “UCLA is at home on October 11, so that would be one I would hope that Sparty would be able to handle. Here’s your losses: at USC, at Nebraska. You might say, ‘Well, they can get Nebraska.’ Sure, they could, in which case we would take that Nebraska win and put it in the bonus category.

“At the moment, here in the preseason, I would lean heavily in favor of the Huskers. They’ll get Michigan at home and Penn State at home. I find it hard to believe that they’ll get either one of those two games going into the season. So we got four in the L category, which means they have three wins, four L’s.”

It’s certainly not impossible for Michigan State to pull off some upsets throughout the season. Last year, the Spartans defeated Iowa 32-20 on Oct. 19. Michigan State entered the game as a 6.5-point underdog.

The Spartans came close to shocking the Michigan Wolverines as well, but ultimately fell 24-17. Nonetheless, Michigan State finished the year with five wins, surpassing the 4.5-win mark oddsmakers had set for them before the season.

While it won’t be easy, McElroy believes Michigan State hit the over again. Of course, the Spartans will have to pass a few difficult tests along the way.

“Here’s your toss ups. There’s a handful of them: Boston College, at Indiana, at Minnesota, at Iowa, and then Maryland in Detroit,” McElroy said. “I know that’s considered a home game, but it’s not going to be played in the friendly confines of East Lansing. So maybe Maryland travels there on holiday, Thanksgiving weekend.

“But either way, knowing that four of your toss up games will not be played in your home venue does make things incredibly difficult, but you got three wins. Tell me, I got to find three more in the toss up category. I think they can get there.”

Michigan State’s staff has been hard at work this offseason to ensure they do just that. The Spartans have added 21 players via the NCAA Transfer Portal this offseason, while only losing 19 to it. Additionally, Michigan State is bringing in 19 freshmen this summer.