Predicting the win-total ceiling, floor for Michigan State in 2024

Michigan State is undergoing a complete reset of the program this season under Jonathan Smith. That could lead to a long upcoming fall but one that could set the foundation for Spartan success in the ones to follow.

On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire discussed all the highs and lows for every team in the Big Ten on Monday, including Michigan State’s to finish the episode. That one is difficult, though, considering how much of a renovation that their building has undergone from the past tenure of Mel Tucker to this one of the new head coach in Smith.

“This is the roster that has probably undergone the most transformation of any in the Big Ten. I don’t know that – transformation is probably the wrong word. Like, it had to be, it was going to be gutted no matter what because of how the previous coach’s tenure ended,” said Staples. “Mel Tucker gets fired in September for off-field reasons and then, all of a sudden, exodus begins. Jonathan Smith gets hired from Oregon State – he decides who he wants to keep, who he wants to get rid of. He also decides who he wants to bring from Corvallis.”

“I think that’s Jonathan Smith going, ‘We’re going to year zero this bad boy and I’m going to make this roster my own,’” Staples said.

Bellaire agreed about the complete reconstruction, which is why he is going to need to see some players over-perform in order to feel better about the Spartans during the year.

“To your point, Andy? I mean this team got beat up by the portal. Now, granted, is that Jonathan Smith’s doing by putting his hand on the roster?” Bellaire thought. “This team needs a guy to step up, though, as a pass-catcher. You had Maliq Carr transferring to Houston, Tre Mosley goes off to the NFL. You lose some good pieces up front on defense too in Bai Jobe, Simeon Barrow, Derrick Harmon to the portal.”

With that said, the one piece that should be worth watching for certain in East Lansing is QB Aidan Chiles, the No. 30 overall transfer and No. 7 QB out of the portal. He comes in with Smith after one year with the Beavers and is a building block that Bellaire is very intrigued about.

“That’s the bright spot. That is the biggest bright spot,” Bellaire said. “He knew what he had in Aidan Chiles. That guy? I mean we had him highly-rated at On3 as well. He’s expected to be the starter. This is a guy with great arm strength, very good pocket presence. His ability to get the ball out quickly and on-target is phenomenal. Really liked him at On3, very excited about him.”

However, for any positives you can find, the schedule alone is then a tall order for Michigan State. While it could start and end fairly well, the Spartans have quite the four-game gauntlet to truly open conference play in the middle of their slate. That may result in some whiplash and mean that we won’t know how to truly assess them until the end of the season.

“My goodness, Andy, if you’re a Michigan State fan? Buckle up. Make sure you’ve got the safety harness on. Keep your hands inside the vehicle at all times. You’re about to go on a roller coaster of a season, in my opinion,” said Bellaire. “I think, when you look at the schedule, it’s very possible for Michigan State to start the year at 4-0. Close that one out with Boston College, you’re in a good spot. Then look at the four games after it? I mean, oh my goodness – Ohio State at home, Oregon on the road, Iowa at home, and Michigan on the road. I mean you want to talk about an emotional swing right there? That is brutal. Then maybe you split those last four games. I mean up and down, up and down.”

“The Spartans are in for an interesting year one but I think it only gets better if you’re a Michigan State fan,” Bellaire said. “Is stock up or down? I think the arrow – it’s going to be very interesting to see where that arrow points at the end.”

All of these changes are why opinions vary on this for Michigan State. The span is five games in total between the two with several variations between the highs and the lows.

Ceiling: 8-4 or 7-5

If everything goes well at Michigan State in 2024, Bellaire has them as an eight-win team with Staples one game below that at seven wins. Still, much of that revolves around a strong sophomore showing from Chiles, at least for Bellaire.

“I’ve got their ceiling at 7-5,” said Staples.

“I have their best case at 8-4,” Bellaire said. “That’s if Aidan Chiles steps up and wins you some games.”

Floor: 3-9 or 4-8

As for the worst-case scenario, Staples has the Spartans having a three-win record while Bellaire is a game better at four victories. That would be the case if they’re unable to make up enough ground with the rest of the conference in Smith’s first year.

“(I’ve got) their floor at 3-9,” Staples opined. “We don’t know what this will all look like when you put it together.

“Worst case is being 4-8,” said Bellaire. “That gap is still big, the skill guys don’t pan, the defense has a tough time up front.”

Even so, Staples reminded the Spartans that this isn’t necessarily about this upcoming season. Hiring Smith means they’re about overall development, which is why he’s more so focused on the years to come like when he had his better years with the Beavers.

“Here’s the thing – based on what we saw at Oregon State, I’m very confident, in a few years, that you’re going to like what you’re seeing. Like, Jonathan Smith didn’t do it in a sexy way but built a team at Oregon State that would just beat your ass up front. But that didn’t happen overnight,” Staples noted. “2018? He went 2-10. 2019? He went 5-7. We don’t count the COVID year, especially in the Pac-12 because of how weird everything was. It was 2021, which was his third full season. Then they start to turn it around – they go 7-6, they make a bowl game, they were above .500 in conference play. Then they go 10-3 the next year.”

“So, like, I think you can do that faster at Michigan State,” said Staples. “I think it’s much easier to recruit to Michigan State than it is to Oregon State. But I think it will take a little bit of time.”

Smith’s tenure at Michigan State is going to be more about the future than the present for these two. It may mean some early disappointment for this season but it all may end up being worth it by the time that they kick off later on down the line under him.

“This guy develops and identifies talent as good as anybody,” said Bellaire. “Is this year going to be the year where they make the gap? No. It’s not. This is not the year where they close the gap. But, year two, year three under Jonathan Smith? I mean, I think you’re crazy if you don’t think he’s going to turn the ship around.”

“I really can’t wait to see it,” Staples said. “Like we both said? Ultimately, I think they end up pretty happy with the way things turn out with the Jonathan Smith hire but there may be some bumps along the way.”