On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine: Michigan trending for 2025 4-star QB Carter Smith

Michigan is trending in the recruitment of Fort Myers (Fla.) Bishop Verot 2025 four-star quarterback Carter Smith, according to the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine.

A trio of expert predictions were logged in favor of the Wolverines over the last three days. On3 Director of Recruiting Chad Simmons placed a prediction with a 60% confidence level that Smith will commit to Michigan. Wolverines recruiting insiders EJ Holland and Zach Libby followed with 60% confidence picks of their own.

Michigan now sits with a 97.7% chance of receiving Smith’s commitment — ahead of a distant Florida at 1.1%.

Smith is the nation’s No. 223 overall prospect in the 2025 cycle according to the On3 Industry Ranking — a weighted average that utilizes all four major recruiting media companies. He is the cycle’s No. 15 quarterback and No. 30 recruit from Florida.

On3 rates Smith higher than every other major recruiting service — ranking him No. 112 overall in the 2025 cycle, per the 2025 On300. He is the No. 8 quarterback and No. 17 recruit from Florida.

Smith does not currently have a publicly listed On3 NIL Valuation. The On3 NIL Valuation is the industry’s leading index that sets high school and college athletes’ projected annual value (PAV). The NIL valuation does not act as a tracker of the value of NIL deals an athlete has completed to date. It rather signifies an athlete’s value at a certain moment in time.

Michigan also pursuing another elite 2025 QB

While the Wolverines are high on Smith, the staff at Michigan also continues to recruit in-state Five-Star Plus+ quarterback Bryce Underwood. Underwood is the nation’s top prospect in the 2025 cycle and lives roughly half an hour from Ann Abor.

“I don’t, Josh. I don’t think he knows,” Simmons said last week about if he thinks Underwood has already made a decision. “Does he have a leader, does he have a favorite? I think all kids have leaders — they won’t always say, ‘I have a top school,’ or one-two-three-four. . . We all have favorites, that’s just common sense. I think based on doing some digging, talking to people tied to his camp, I would lean slightly — very slightly — toward maybe LSU. Like 51-49 over Michigan today. But this one I do think still is far from over. There will still be some heavy discussions made, some questions asked from Underwood’s camp to each school on his list as they prepare to make that big decision.”