Why the NCAA could have trouble punishing Michigan after investigation

As the facts of the alleged Michigan sign-stealing scandal continue to stream out to the public, the question for what happens next has become clearer: What degree and form — and when — will punishment from the NCAA come?

So far, it’s been reported that Michigan staffer Connor Stalions had purchased dozens of tickets for others to attend games of future Wolverines opponents, with those people apparently often recording the sidelines. Some sort of action is most likely in the offing from the NCAA, but the Associated Press’ Ralph Russo and On3’s Andy Staples dove into how the governing body of college sports might be ill-equipped to act decisively and, moreover, quickly.

“But that’s the interesting grey area here that we’re going to get into with what the punishment is. But here’s the big — forget $64,000, here’s the $64 million question: Can they do anything this year?” Russo said.

He and Staples both think the answer is a resounding no, for a number of reasons.

For one, despite the explosive nature of the allegations and growing body of evidence, the NCAA still has yet to issue a formal Notice of Allegations to Michigan, which kicks off the infractions process. From that point, Michigan would have 90 days to respond before the process is supposed to proceed. That means if an NOA were delivered now, the soonest action would likely be in late January. By that point, the college football season would be over.

The NCAA could try to expedite the process, but Staples doesn’t think that would be met with anything but litigation from the Wolverines.

“And remember the last time they went outside their usual process to punish somebody in a timely fashion. It was Penn State after the [Jerry] Sandusky thing. They got sued and they had to walk it back. If I am Michigan and they try to do anything to me right now, I lawyer the hell up and say ‘We will sue you into oblivion.’ And if I’m Michigan I just play this season out, put my head down, try to win the national title and if I win the national title and they come back and try to strip it from me, I lawyer the hell up then too,” Staples said.

And if the NCAA doesn’t levy some punishment prior to the end of the season — one in which Michigan could win a national championship — they’d be left with one of the more shrugged-at sanctions available in vacating wins.

While certain portions of Michigan fans and administrators, among others, would chafe and the NCAA stripping wins and championships after the fact, Russo and Staples noted that most of the college sports world has moved on from treating those sanctions as meaningful.

“Nobody else cares, but internally you care because you want banners and things like that and you want the record books to show certain things. But that’s my point: If you’re not getting this thing adjudicated this year, we can talk about tarnishing the legacy — listen, that’s already done. As far as Ohio State fans are concerned, it’s already tarnished, you’re not convincing them. But if it doesn’t impact this year, 20 of those players are going to be in the NFL next year. Maybe [Jim] Harbaugh will be in the NFL next year. Like it’s all symbolic, the punishment if it’s not done this year,” Russo said.

And Russo raised another point, about how the actual advantage Michigan derived, while real, is highly ambiguous. Sign-stealing is legal, but Michigan went outside the bounds of the rules to do it more efficiently than other schools. Russo isn’t sure how one parses out just how and when Michigan got an advantage, at least to a quantifiable level.

“But ultimately you still need to boil it down to what is — can we quantify the competitive impact on these games? And that’s just ambiguous,” Russo said. “I’m not saying it has no impact if I know your plays, that’s probably going to help me out.”