Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Minnesota in 2024

Coming off a down season, the Minnesota Golden Gophers are looking to bounce back in 2024 and compete with the top teams in the growing Big Ten Conference.

With that in mind, Andy Staples had Cody Bellaire on Andy Staples On3. There, the two broke down what they see from Minnesota as of right now. They also shared their predictions for win ceiling and floor for the Golden Gophers in 2024.

While neither Staples nor Bellaire expects Minnesota to jump up to double-digit wins, they are both excited to see what can become of the Golden Gophers next season.

CEILING: 8-4

Both Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire agreed that the ceiling for Minnesota in 2024 is going to be approximately 8-4. That starts with an offense that returns some talent but has an interesting incoming quarterback to lead the team.

“What is the Max Brosmer era at Minnesota gonna look like? Max Brosmer, from New Hampshire, no longer has his favorite target who is actually a running back, Dylan Laube,” Andy Staples said. “But he comes in and he may not have a Dylan Laube to work with but he’ll have weapons around him, and a pretty salty defense that they bring back. This could be an interesting team because Minnesota, historically, will punch you in the mouth, and I don’t think that’s gonna change.”

For his part, Cody Bellaire sees exciting talent on the offensive side of the ball. However, it’s on defense where he feels head coach P.J. Fleck did the best possible job to replenish talent for Minnesota.

“No, but the thing is they bring a lot of production back on the offensive side of the ball. Leading rusher Darius Taylor is back as well. Daniel Jackson, who was the top receiver last year. Offensive line is still in really good shape in my opinion. Defensively, they lose their three leading tackles from last year, including arguably the best player on the roster in Tyler Nubin to the NFL, but they did bring in one of my favorite 2024 prospects last year in safety Koi Perich from the state of Minnesota, playing for the home team. I hope he gets some run this season. He’s very talented. They bring in Jaxon Howard from LSU to come play off the edge. They also sign Clemson signee Adam Kissayi, who was a 2024 guy that they flipped,” Bellaire said.

“But, the big question [is] Max Brosmer. This is a guy that was a Walter Payton Award finalist last year. This isn’t some guy they just picked up off the street in FCS. This guy’s a dude. He led the FCS in passing yards. He has great accuracy, he throws the ball with touch, he can layer the football, solid mobility, and he can make guys miss in the open field. I am genuinely so excited to watch him play next season.”

The new Big Ten makes it so that most schedules are going to be difficult to navigate. That’s no different for Minnesota. Still, there is room to win a bunch of games in 2024.

“When you look at the schedule, if you go on the high side, this is a team that could go 8-4…I think they start trending things in the right direction under P.J. Fleck,” Bellaire said. “And I think last year was more of a fluke than anything. I think they get back in the saddle and they continue to row the boat in Minnesota.”

In the Class of 2024, Minnesota had the 34th-ranked recruiting class. It’s a class that Cody Bellaire praised and feels could help the team moving forward.

“To that point, I think the way Minnesota recruits, especially in this 24 cycle, there’s some guys that might fit that defensive gameplan where you can say, ‘Hey, he’s not fully developed yet to be a three-down starter for us on this defensive front or off in like a nickel spot or somewhere in the secondary, but situationally, you can get a lot of talented, athletic, upside prospects that are young, maybe not fully developed, but they have a specific skillset,” Bellaire said.

“Minnesota does an awesome job of finding those guys. So, maybe you get the most out of this defense and maybe you really get some valuable experience for these younger guys and play them in situations that they may not necessarily find elsewhere, but Minnesota could get the most out of them.”

FLOOR: 5-7

Just as Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire agreed that 8-4 was the ceiling for Minnesota, they also agreed that 5-7 was the floor.

“I’ve got 5-7 as the floor, just because they do get some of the tougher draws,” Andy Staples said. “They go to Michigan. They play USC. They’ve got Penn State. Iowa is gonna be tough. That Floyd of Rosedale game in September is gonna be something to get used to. At Rutgers, Minnesota at Rutgers is gonna be a slog because that Rutgers defense is nasty.”

At that point, Bellaire asked Staples if he thinks Minnesota will be closer to the floor or ceiling. However, Staples stayed relatively in between the two sides of the coin while praising the team’s new defensive coordinator.

“I think somewhere in the middle of that. I know that’s the boring answer but I do think like 7-5 is probably where it is just because there’s probably gonna be a game where things don’t go their way and we think they should win but they didn’t. They’re also replacing the defensive coordinator,” Staples said.

“Remember, Joe Rossi left to go to Michigan State. Their new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman was at James Madison. He was the linebackers coach at Rutgers last year, but he was at James Madison as a DC…he’s a best 11, we’ll figure out what it looks like once we figure out who the best 11 are. Like, he’ll go odd front if that’s what works. He’ll go even front if that’s what works…it doesn’t matter. It’s whatever the players dictate, which I think especially at a situation like that where you’re not in a place where you can take the best prospect at each position, and you just have to take the best athlete you can, this is the way to do it.”