Mississippi State 2025 win total: Greg McElroy gives his view of Bulldogs' schedule

Mississippi State had its worst record in two decades last fall with a 2-10 finish in the debut season for Jeff Lebby. The Bulldogs might not be too much better in the second but as far as their win total, a single game could be the difference in them going over or under.

ESPN’s Greg McElroy took a look at several win totals, including the 3.5 for Mississippi State, during a recent episode of ‘Always College Football’. He thinks that, despite it being the lowest total in the Southeastern Conference and one of the lowest in all of the Power Five, it’s still going to take some work to get to that over, especially considering they were a team that won just those two games last season.

“They had just two wins last year, so it might seem, well, 3.5? They can get that? But, to know they only had two last year, including a loss in the non-conference to Toledo, it might be a little tougher than you might assume,” McElroy said. “This was a team last year that was trying to figure themselves out. It was a complete shift in what they wanted to be from a philosophy standpoint.”

If Mississippi State is going to go over, it’s going to come down to three of the nonconference games over the first four weeks of the season. Those should set them up for no worse than a 3-1 start, which is one of the likely few ways that the record does go over.

“You look at their non-conference? There should be three wins in the non-conference automatically,” McElroy said. “That’s at Southern Miss, Alcorn State, and then against Northern Illinois.”

From there, Mississippi State would be one game away from going over with nine games left, all against power competition, one in the nonconference and eight in league play, to get that last win. McElroy kept the focus early, then with the two games he feels are the Bulldogs’ best chance to get it, being Arizona State in their second game and Tennessee in their fifth, both of which are in Starkville.

“If they can get to 3-0 in the non-conference there then take your pick. You’ve got to make one upset happen,” McElroy said. “I, frankly, do not envision Mississippi State right now being able to go on the road and get an upset. I don’t think that’s likely to happen but can they do it at home? Good luck against this schedule.”

“You have Arizona State, who comes to town on September 6th. Arizona State is a playoff team from a year ago and returns a lot of their corps from a year ago,” McElroy said. “You have Tennessee. That might be the most gettable opportunity because, at this point, while I think Tennessee has a chance to be really solid, I don’t think they’ll be anywhere near as good as they were a year ago. So maybe that’s the one that Mississippi State has to circle on September 27th to be able to get over that 3.5 win plateau.”

If they don’t beat the Sun Devils or Volunteers, that’s where, even with seven games left on the slate from October on, the under comes into play for the Bulldogs. McElroy has already given them losses in all of their road games at Texas A&M, Florida, Arkansas, and Missouri. The home games at Davis Wade Stadium are then even harder than that with matchups against Texas, Georgia, and Ole Miss.

“Their other home games are against Texas, Georgia, and Ole Miss. At this point? Yes, there are questions surrounding Ole Miss, there are a few pieces that need to be replaced there. But I don’t see a win against Texas and I don’t see a win against Georgia, not at this point,” McElroy said.

As far as Vegas, Mississippi State has a season that’s going to come down to the opener through the month of September. McElroy, assuming three mid-major wins, sees the Bulldogs having two games, maybe a third, to win one in determining whether they’re over or under that win total.

“Can they get Tennessee, can they get Ole Miss, or could they perhaps pull a big upset against the Big 12 favorite, or one of the Big 12 favorites, in Arizona State? That’ll be the big question mark for Jeff Lebby here in year number two,” McElroy ended.